Genomic selection applied to plant breeding enables earlier estimates of a line’s performance and significant reductions in generation interval. Several factors affecting prediction accuracy should be well understood if breeders are to harness genomic selection to its full potential. We used a panel of 10,375 bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) lines genotyped with 18,101 SNP markers to investigate the effect and interaction of training set size, population structure and marker density on genomic prediction accuracy. Through assessing the effect of training set size we showed the rate at which prediction accuracy increases is slower beyond approximately 2,000 lines. The structure of the panel was assessed via principal component analysis and K-means clustering, and its effect on prediction accuracy was examined through a novel cross-validation analysis according to the K-means clusters and breeding cohorts. Here we showed that accuracy can be improved by increasing the diversity within the training set, particularly when relatedness between training and validation sets is low. The breeding cohort analysis revealed that traits with higher selection pressure (lower allelic diversity) can be more accurately predicted by including several previous cohorts in the training set. The effect of marker density and its interaction with population structure was assessed for marker subsets containing between 100 and 17,181 markers. This analysis showed that response to increased marker density is largest when using a diverse training set to predict between poorly related material. These findings represent a significant resource for plant breeders and contribute to the collective knowledge on the optimal structure of calibration panels for genomic prediction.

Key message Genomic prediction accuracy within a large panel was found to be substantially higher than that previously observed in smaller populations, and also higher than QTL-based prediction. AbstractIn recent years, genomic selection for wheat breeding has been widely studied, but this has typically been restricted to population sizes under 1000 individuals. To assess its efficacy in germplasm representative of commercial breeding programmes, we used a panel of 10,375 Australian wheat breeding lines to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction for grain yield, physical grain quality and other physiological traits. To achieve this, the complete panel was phenotyped in a dedicated field trial and genotyped using a custom AxiomTM Affymetrix SNP array. A high-quality consensus map was also constructed, allowing the linkage disequilibrium present in the germplasm to be investigated. Using the complete SNP array, genomic prediction accuracies were found to be substantially higher than those previously observed in smaller populations and also more accurate compared to prediction approaches using a finite number of selected quantitative trait loci. Multi-trait genetic correlations were also assessed at an additive and residual genetic level, identifying a negative genetic correlation between grain yield and protein as well as a positive genetic correlation between grain size and test weight.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00122-017-2975-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A major challenge in the analysis of plant breeding multi-environment datasets is the provision of meaningful and concise information for variety selection in the presence of variety by environment interaction (VEI). This is addressed in the current paper by fitting a factor analytic linear mixed model (FALMM) then using the fundamental factor analytic parameters to define groups of environments in the dataset within which there is minimal crossover VEI, but between which there may be substantial crossover VEI. These groups are consequently called interaction classes (iClasses). Given that the environments within an iClass exhibit minimal crossover VEI, it is then valid to obtain predictions of overall variety performance (across environments) for each iClass. These predictions can then be used not only to select the best varieties within each iClass but also to match varieties in terms of their patterns of VEI across iClasses. The latter is aided with the use of a new graphical tool called an iClass Interaction Plot. The ideas are introduced in this paper within the framework of FALMMs in which the genetic effects for different varieties are assumed independent. The application to FALMMs which include information on genetic relatedness is the subject of a subsequent paper.

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