Rapid climate warming in the tundra biome has been linked to increasing shrub dominance 1-4 . Shrub expansion can modify climate by altering surface albedo, energy and water balance, and permafrost 2,5-8 , yet the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. Dendroecological data consisting of multi-decadal time series of annual shrub growth provide an underused resource to explore climate-growth relationships. Here, we analyse circumpolar data from 37 Arctic and alpine sites in 9 countries, including 25 species, and ∼42,000 annual growth records from 1,821 individuals. Our analyses demonstrate that the sensitivity of shrub growth to climate was: (1) heterogeneous, with European sites showing greater summer temperature sensitivity than North American sites, and (2) higher at sites with greater soil moisture and for taller shrubs (for example, alders and willows) growing at their northern or upper elevational range edges. Across latitude, climate sensitivity of growth was greatest at the boundary between the Low and High Arctic, where permafrost is thawing 4 and most of the global permafrost soil carbon pool is stored 9 . The observed variation in climate-shrub growth relationships should be incorporated into Earth system models to improve future projections of climate change impacts across the tundra biome.The Arctic is warming more rapidly than lower latitudes owing to climate amplification involving temperature, water vapour, albedo and sea ice feedbacks 5,7 . Tundra ecosystems are thus predicted to respond more rapidly to climate change than other terrestrial ecosystems 4 . The tundra biome spans Arctic and alpine regions that have similar plant species pools and mean climates, yet vary in topography, seasonality, land cover and glaciation history. Concurrent with the recent high-latitude warming trend 7 , repeat photography and vegetation surveys have shown widespread expansion of shrubs 1-3 , characterized by increased canopy cover, height and abundance. However, climate warming 7 and shrub increase 2,10 have not occurred at all sites. Models predict that warming of 2-10 • C (ref. 11) could convert as much as half of current tundra to 'shrubland' by the end of the twenty-first century 8 , but the uniformity of the frequently cited relationship between climate

Background: Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic and its software implementation -SaTScan -are widely used for detecting and evaluating geographic clusters. However, two issues make using the method and interpreting its results non-trivial: (1) the method lacks cartographic support for understanding the clusters in geographic context and (2) results from the method are sensitive to parameter choices related to cluster scaling (abbreviated as scaling parameters), but the system provides no direct support for making these choices. We employ both established and novel geovisual analytics methods to address these issues and to enhance the interpretation of SaTScan results. We demonstrate our geovisual analytics approach in a case study analysis of cervical cancer mortality in the U.S.

Shrub expansion is a global phenomenon that is occurring on savannas, rangelands, and grasslands. In addition, this is an increasingly documented occurrence in the Arctic. Numerous recent studies have strived to pinpoint the drivers of this phenomenon, quantify the changes, and understand their implications for regional and global land use, disturbance regimes, and nutrient cycling. Inquiry into these topics has been facilitated by recent technological developments in satellite remote sensing, aerial photograph analysis, and computer simulation modeling. We provide a new review that accounts for more recent studies in these regions, Arctic shrub expansion, and technological and analytical developments. This four-part discussion focuses on observed patterns of shrub expansion in three rangeland types (desert grasslands, mesic grasslands, savannas) and the Arctic tundra, the primary causes of this expansion, critical comparisons and contrasts between these land types, and recommendations for future avenues of research. These new avenues can inform the development of future land management policies, as well as ongoing investigations to understand and mitigate the effects of climate change.

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Shrub expansion is a global phenomenon that is gaining increased attention in the Arctic. Recent work employing the use of oblique aerial photographs suggested a consistent pattern of positive change in shrub cover across the North Slope of Alaska. The greatest amounts of change occurred in valley slopes and floodplains. We studied the association between shrub cover change and topographically derived hydrologic characteristics in five areas in northern Alaska between the 1970s and 2000s. Change in total shrub cover ranged from −0.65% to 46.56%. Change in floodplain shrub cover ranged from 3.38% to 76.22%. Shrubs are preferentially expanding into areas of higher topographic wetness index (TWI) values where the potential for moisture accumulation or drainage is greater. In addition, we found that floodplain shrub development was strongly associated with high TWI values and a decreasing average distance between shrubs and the river bank. This suggests an interacting influence of substrate removal and stabilization as a consequence of increased vegetation cover.