General rightsThis document is made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the reference above. This paper describes a statistical method for learning and estimating the risk posed by other crafts in the vicinity of a vessel and an overview to its possible spatial application, simulating how professional mariners perceive and assess such risk and using navigational data obtained from a standard integrated bridge. We propose a non-linear model for risk estimation which attempts to capture mariners' judgement. Questionnaire data has been collected that captures and quantifies Mariners' judgements of risk for crafts in the vicinity, where each craft is described by measurements that can be obtained easily from the data already present in the ship's navigational equipment. The dataset has then been used for analysis, training and validating Ordered Probit Models in order to obtain a computationally efficient data driven model for estimating the risk probability vector posed by other crafts. Finally, we discuss how this risk model can be incorporated into decision making and path finding algorithms.