The Coal-Fired Power Plants with low-emissions plants in the power sector can avoid nearly 800 million tonnes CO2 by 2030. The number of populations, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), electricity generation, NDC, and relevant energy policies influenced the prediction of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission from electricity generation. Aim: The objective is to analyze trends of CO2 growth related to electricity generation activities from countries in ASEAN with an emphasis on identifying the factors that influence it and evaluating the effectiveness of existing decarbonization policies in AMS and developing suitable strategies to reduce future CO2 emissions. Methodology and Result: Predicting CO2 emissions is conducted using three approaches by considering the newest NDC and energy policies, conducted by descriptive and quantitative analysis based on secondary data of (1) general information on ASEAN Member States (AMS), (2) information on power plants, (3) information on fuel use in electricity generation, and (4) decarbonization policies in AMS. Results indicated that the availability of potential energy sources (coal/oil/gas/RE) influences the dominant energy used in AMS Prediction of CO2e emission in the 2020 to 2040 period identified Vietnam as one of the highest CO2e emitters (380,1 Mt CO2e) in the electricity sector by 2030. Conclusion, significance and impact study: AMS needs to make a more aggressive energy policy to reduce CO2 level significantly, achieving the 2050 net zero transition targets. Ultimately, the shifting from coal-fired electricity plants to other fuel sources with a lower emission factor proves to be the most significant factor towards emission reduction.

The Association of the Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region is a critical contributor to global development from an environmental perspective. This study has reviewed carbon emissions from energy generation, influence factors from the population, economic growth and renewable energy, emission and energy intensity projection, spatial distribution characteristics, and decarbonization strategy. This work utilizes a comparison methodology between ASEAN countries in the emission intensity and energy intensity in the future projection of electricity conditions in 2030 or 2040, as well as opportunities for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as determined by the national policies of each government. The results show that Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia produce 79.7% of the electricity in the ASEAN region. As a developing country, Indonesia has the largest population and gross domestic product (GDP) but has the highest predicted emission intensity, of 0.97 CO2e/MWh, in 2030. Vietnam is predicted to have an emission intensity of about 3.56t-CO2e/cap and 0.747t-CO2e/GDP in 2030. Vietnam is expected to increase in energy intensity to 1241 MWh/GDP, while Brunei Darussalam has a high energy intensity of 11.35 MWh/cap. However, the capacity of solar power plants (more than 11 GW) and wind-power plants (2384 MW) have generally increased in ASEAN from 2015 to 2019, indicating the positive development of renewable energy source (RES) use. The national policies strongly influence the estimated GHG emission in ASEAN by aggressively replacing fossil fuels with RESs. Support, via government policies, can reduce the cost of electricity generation from RESs is needed to increase and enhance the installment of clean power generation systems. In future work, the research needs to consider the intermittent characteristics of variable RES in power system operation.