Coastal erosion at Saint Louis in Senegal is affecting the local population that consists of primarily fishermen communities in their housing and their access to the sea. This paper aims at quantifying urban beach erosion at Saint Louis, Senegal, West Africa which is located on the northern end of the 13 km long Langue de Barbarie sand spit. The coastal evolution is examined quantitatively over a yearly period using Pleiades sub-metric satellite imagery that allows for stereogrammetry to derive Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). The comparison with ground truth data shows sub-metric differences to the satellite DEMs. Despite its interest in remote areas and developing countries that cannot count on regular surveys, the accuracy of the satellite-derived topography is in the same order as the coastal change itself, which emphasizes its current limitations. These 3D data are combined with decades-long regular Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery derived shorelines. These observations reveal that the sand spit is stretching, narrowing at its Northern part while it is lengthening downdrift Southward, independently from climatological changes in the wave regime. A parametric model based on a stochastic cyclic sand spit behaviour allows for predicting the next northern opening of a breach and the urban erosion at Saint Louis.

Increasingly, it is reported that the coastline of the Dakar region is affected by coastal flooding due to extreme water levels during wave events. Here, we quantify the extreme coastal water levels as well as the different factors contributing to coastal flooding during the period 1994–2015. Severe water levels reach values of 1.78 m and increase by 8.4 mm/year. The time spent above this threshold has already increased by 1.7 over the study period and will increase by 2100 to 8 times with 0.4 m mean sea level rise and up to 20 times with 0.8 m in the IPCC low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, respectively. Tide is the main contributor to the extremes when combined with large wave runup, due to wave breaking which contributes to 38% of the increase in extreme events while sea level rises to 44%. Our results show that because of its prominent location, Dakar region is affected by waves coming from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres with contrasted evolutions: wave runup events increase faster (7 mm/year) during austral winter due to a maximum of the South Atlantic storm activity, and have a decreasing trend (−3 mm/year) during boreal winter (December, January, February) driven by the evolution of corresponding climate modes.