Covering approximately 10,000 km 2 the Sundarbans in the Northern Bay of Bengal is the largest contiguous mangrove forest on earth. Mangroves forests are highly productive and diverse ecosystems, providing a wide range of direct ecosystem services for resident populations. In addition, mangroves function as a buffer against frequently occurring cyclones; helping to protect local settlements including the two most populous cities of the world, Kolkata and Dhaka, against their worst effects. While large tracts of the Indian Sundarbans were cleared, drained and reclaimed for cultivation during the British colonial era, the remaining parts have been under various protection regimes since the 1970s, primarily to protect the remaining population of Bengal tigers (Panthera tigris ssp. tigris). In view of the importance of such forests, now severely threatened worldwide, we trace the areal change that the Indian Sundarbans have undergone over the last two-and-a-half centuries. We apply a multi-temporal and multi-scale approach based on historical maps and remote sensing data to detect changes in mangrove cover. While the mangroves' areal extent has not changed much in the recent past, forest health and structure have. These changes result from direct human interference, upstream development, extreme weather events and the slow onset of climate change effects. Moreover, we consider the role of different management strategies affecting mangrove conservation and their intersection with local livelihoods.

Climate change is a 'wicked' problem. No central authority manages climate change, and those creating the problem are also trying to solve it. Climate change brings uncertainty in ways that cities have not tackled previously. There is a need to explore new governance forms able to deal with change and to enable transformations. In this paper we explore seven local climate innovations to better understand the enabling conditions underpinning success and the governance barriers that are encountered. We connect the more formal and emergent climate governance 'innovations' through adaptation and mitigation experiments in Mumbai, India. Case studies indicate an emerging development model. Effective climate governance has to be an inevitable part of new development in the South. While climate externality exists in all development planning and implementation, smaller community-level efforts indicate how opportunities are offered within existing systems to integrate with larger institutional climate governance.

Disaster risk from extreme events and development are intimately linked. Disaster risk management influences and is affected by local development strategies. Trade-offs made in policy and implementation determine winners and losers on the basis of unequal capacity, susceptibility and hazard exposure. Transformation has been introduced as a concept opening new policy space for fundamental shifts in development trajectories. Though policy neutral, when combined with normative frameworks such as the Sustainable development goals it can open up leverage points for determining development trajectories. There is limited empirical evidence on which to base understanding of transformative disaster risk management policy though some work has been done in sister domains such as climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study asks whether transformation pathways for disaster risk management can be observed, offering an initial qualitative analysis to inform policy development. It is based on five case studies drawn from diverse locations exposed to a range of extreme events, examined through a conceptual framework offering five indicators of transformation to aid analysis: intense interaction between actors; the intervention of external actors; system level change extending beyond efficiency to governance and goals; behavior beyond established coping strategies; and behavior extending beyond established institutions. Core characteristics of transformative pathways for disaster risk reduction are identified, including pathway competition, pathway experimentation, pathway scale effects and pathway lock-in. These characteristics are seen to determine the extent to which the disruption consequent on extreme events leads to either transformatory change or relative stasis. The study concludes that transformative disaster risk management, both intentional and incidental can be observed. It is seen that transformations occur primarily at local level. Where policy level change occurs this generally played out at local level too. The particular insight of the study is to suggest that most often the burden of transformation is carried at the local level through the behavior of individuals, populations and civil society. This observation raises an important question for further work: How can the burden of undertaking transformation be shared across scales?

No abstract

No abstract