The magnitude and pace of global change demand rapid assessment of nature and its contributions to people. We present a fine-scale global modeling of current status and future scenarios for several contributions: water quality regulation, coastal risk reduction, and crop pollination. We find that where people’s needs for nature are now greatest, nature’s ability to meet those needs is declining. Up to 5 billion people face higher water pollution and insufficient pollination for nutrition under future scenarios of land use and climate change, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Hundreds of millions of people face heightened coastal risk across Africa, Eurasia, and the Americas. Continued loss of nature poses severe threats, yet these can be reduced 3- to 10-fold under a sustainable development scenario.

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Ecosystem Service Assessments (ESAs) have become a popular tool for science-based policy. Yet, there are few guidelines for developing an ESA to inform a decision-making process. This is an important area of inquiry since the process of conducting an ESA is likely to affect the quality of results and their influence on decisions. Drawing on the lessons of conducting ESAs around the world, we propose a set of enabling conditions and a framework for carrying out ESAs that foster high-quality results and drive action. Our framework includes an emphasis on iterative stakeholder engagement, advancing science to address policy needs, and capacity-building through six general steps: (1) scope the process, (2) collect and compile data, (3) develop scenarios, (4) analyze ecosystem services, (5) synthesize results, and (6) communicate knowledge. Our experience indicates that using this framework to conduct an ESA can generate policy-relevant science and enhance uptake of information about nature's benefits in decisions.

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