Because of their natural adherence to the climate and pronounced seasonal cycles, prices of field crops constitute an interesting field for exploring seasonal time series models. We consider quarterly prices of two major cereals: barley and wheat. Using traditional in-sample fit and moving-window techniques, we investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit-root stochastic and whether seasonal cycles have converged over time. We find that seasonal cycles in the data are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries differs for the two commodities. Out-of-sample prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not match the statistical in-sample evidence. Parametric bootstrap experiments establish that the observed mismatch is indeed an inherent and systematic feature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The paper uses the Johansen cointegration approach to analyse long-run pricing strategies of pork and chicken retailers in Austria. Long-run retail pricing strategy is found to be dependent on market share and price elasticity of demand for product. A combination of mark-up pricing strategy for pork and a competitive pricing strategy for chicken is considered by retailers to yield maximum profit. Long-run price adjustment reveals linkages to pricing strategy. The versatility of the Johansen cointegration technique as a tool capable of analysing both competitive and imperfect market situations is also revealed. The paper recommends meat policy to be product specific rather than holistic. KeywordsMarket power, markup pricing, cointegration, long run JEL Classifications C32, D43, L11, Q13 CommentsThe research on which this article is based began in 1995 at the Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics, Vienna, with the support of the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the 264 th NFJ Seminar, Alnarp, Sweden, 1996. The author is grateful to Karl M. Ortner for the data and to Robert M. Kunst, Karl M. Ortner, Martin Wagner, and seminar participants for useful comments on earlier drafts.