Mechanistic models are particularly useful for understanding and predicting population dynamics in data deficient species. Data deficiency is a relevant issue in small scale fisheries as they are generally under studied and underrepresented in global fishing datasets. As overfishing remains a global issue, especially in small-scale fisheries, one commonly utilized conservation method is temporary closures. The blue octopus (Octopus cyanea) fishery off the southwest coast of Madagascar is one such system that uses temporary closures, yet lacks sufficient data collection to assess the viability of the population. This fishery is a key economic resource for the local community as blue octopus catch is sold by local fishers to international and local export markets and is a major component of fisher income. To assess the sustainability of blue octopus, we parameterize a Levkovitch population matrix model using existing catch data. In this study, we show that this population was in a decline of 1.8% per month at the time of data collection. To sustain the existing population of blue octopus, our model indicates that the fishery would need to close for at least three months annually. Increasing the length of closure is predicted to significantly increase the octopus population at these sites. We show that if implemented correctly, temporary closures could be used to restore this population. The local communities of Madagascar have implemented various fishing restrictions to ensure sustainable fishing, indicating a need for further research into the effectiveness of these fishing closures. Therefore, our study provides insight into the underlying population dynamics of this fishery and provides survivability estimates of this species.