This study aims to develop a model of the future of Indonesia’s food consumption up to 2045, using a baseline of food consumption in 2017 and projections to 2025 as milestones, and to draw policy relevance on food and related issues for the next Medium-Term Development Planning of 2020–2024. The projected demand of Indonesian food consumption is built based on the functional relationship between income and food consumption at the baseline using three different scenarios of economic growth: baseline, moderate, and optimistic. Method of Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) was implemented to estimate changes of food consumption. Susenas data from 2017 is used as the baseline of food demand model. Susenas data from 1990–2016 is used to analyze selected food consumption trends and the relationship between food consumption, price trends, and income in all 33 provinces of Indonesia. The results show that future food demand in Indonesia is determined by existing demand, income, price and its composition, and various other factors that affect the behavior and trends of consumption. The policy should focus on the balance between demand-side management and supply-side or productivity improvement, as the majority of food production centers are located in Java.

At present, the world economy is in uncertainty. One reason is that two economically large countries, the United States (US) and China are in conflict and beat the drums of trade war. This is indicated by the policy of US applying tariffs on a number of Chinese products, and then responded very quickly by China by implementing a reply tariff. The aim of this study is to analyze the economic consequences of the US-China trade war for Indonesia and Indonesia's strategies to respond to the trade war. The analytical method used is the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. The results of the analysis show that the consequences of the US-China trade war on the found that trade wars between the US and China had an impact on the decline in the total output of goods produced by the US and China by 3.91% and 2.67% respectively. But the economic growth (PDB) of the US and China will be corrected by 0.08% and 0.66% respectively. Exports are still affected by -0.24% with greater implications. It means Indonesia has not been able to take advantage of the situation as a source of economic growth (GDP) projected to only increase by 0.01%. This means that Indonesia also needs to improve, so that investment in the real sector continues to flow profusely even though the China-US trade war has not been completed. The recommendation suggested that in the short-term strategies that need to be done are increasing export competitiveness, encouraging export-oriented industrial productivity, expanding and strengthening domestic and world markets, and controlling the amount of imports. In the longterm strategies include the need to improve the quality of human resources in the trade and industry sectors, utilization of the results of research and development, and infrastructure development is right on target for increased productivity.

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Abstrak Kehadiran ekonomi digital sebagai bagian dari revolusi industri 4.0 yang telah membuka peluang baru dalam bidang perdagangan dan menjembatani kepentingan produsen, konsumen, dan pasar tanpa dibatasi ruang dan waktu. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis dampak pemanfaatan teknologi digital pada sektor perdagangan terhadap produktivitasnya, penyerapan tenaga kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah metode analisis model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) dinamik. Hasil analisis menunjukkan digitalisasi di sektor perdagangan meningkatkan jumlah outputnya sebagai produktivitas jangka pendek dan panjang. Adapun dampak terhadap penyerapan tenaga kerja di perkotaan dan pedesaan menurunkan jenis pekerjaan tertentu pada periode analisis terutama tenaga kerja terampil rendah. Selanjutnya dampak terhadap GDP riil meningkat pada periode analisis. Kebijakan yang direkomendasikan adalah perlu perbaikan akurasi dan validitas database produk-produk yang kompetitif, strategi antisipatif untuk tenaga kerja yang terdistrupsi, pelayanan perizinan akses semakin mudah, optimalisasi aplikasi teknologi digital dalam tata kelola perdagangan, dan perbaikan sarana prasarana informasi dan teknologi. Kata Kunci: Teknologi Digital, Produktivitas, Tenaga Kerja, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi   Abstract The presence of a digital economy as part of the industrial revolution 4.0 has opened up new opportunities in trade and bridged the interests of producers, consumers, and markets without being constrained by time and space. The study aims to analyze the impact of digital technology utilization on the trade sector on its productivity, labor, and economic growth. The analysis method used is the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The analysis results show that digitalization in the trade sector increases output as productivity in the short and long term. The impact on labor in urban and rural areas reduces certain types of work in the analysis period, especially low skilled labor. Furthermore, during the analysis period, the impact on real GDP increases. The recommended policy is to improve the accuracy and validity of competitive products' database, anticipatory strategies for labor that have disrupted, easier access licensing services, optimization of digital technology applications in trade governance, and improvement of information and technology infrastructure. Keywords: Digital Technology, Productivity, Labor, Economic Growth JEL Classification: F12, F13, F15