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Purpose In the case of Iran, about 19 years have passed since the announcement of general energy policies. Policies adopted in the past included too many approaches and goals for the energy sector that some of them are in conflict with each other and their simultaneous implementation was impossible. Therefore, many of the expected goals of these policies have not been achieved. It is very important to adopt an appropriate approach that is compatible with the country’s characteristics and can steer energy policies. Therefore, this study aims to adopt an appropriate approach for the country’s energy sector according to the conditions and needs of the country. Design/methodology/approach A participatory scenario technique is designed and used to develop plausible projections in the case of Iran’s energy futures. Based on the proposed methodology, the research process starts with data gathering through interviews and national plans analysis. Then, findings were used as inputs to a simulation-based scenario development process. Scenarios are developed based on Monte Carlo simulation via cross-impact analysis technique purified based on expert judgments. Findings In this paper, to recognize Iran’s general approach to energy in the next 20 years, driving forces of change were introduced and used as input for the scenario development phase. Results showed sanctions play a significant role in Iran’s energy future and determine the directions of other driving forces. For renewable energy, it was proposed to increase the renewable share in Iran’s electricity generation mix to 5% of the total installed capacity. In the case of fossil fuel extraction, the maximum efficient rate was proposed for both oil and natural gas national production strategy. Originality/value This research is novel both in terms of application and theory. A new participatory scenario development method is used using simulations that are equipped based on experts’ judgments. Also from the practical perspective, this research targeted a future-oriented challenging problem to initialize national policy in a resource-rich developing economy (i.e. Iran).

Oxidative desulphurization (ODS) of heavy fuel oil (HFO) has some challenges such as gum formation and a high level of waste hydrocarbons. Simple calculations show that, assuming dibenzothiophene (DBT) as a representative component of sulphur-containing components in the cut, about 20% of hydrocarbons are lost within the extraction process. An experimental investigation has been conducted in a three-neck glass flask with a mechanical stirrer to obtain more insight about the gum formation during ODS of HFO. The gum formation process was investigated in diluted forms of fuel oil. It was observed that the fuel oil converted to the gum increases by decreasing the hydrogen/carbon (H/C) content of the diluting solvents. The main reason for gum formation during ODS is some polymer formation reactions induced by peroxide radicals. At an oxidant to sulphur ratio (O/S) ratio of 0.25, no gum was formed, while at O/S = 5.0, all of the fuel oil was converted to gum. Finally, a simple and efficient extractive desulphurization procedure has been proposed as an alternative method. At the best condition, about 84% desulphurization was obtained with dimethylformamide (DMF) solvent extraction of HFO. It can be assumed as a potential method to use mild mixing conditions with low contact time for extractive desulphurization of HFO on an industrial scale.

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