Most prevalent neurodegenerative disorders take decades to develop and their early detection is challenged by confounding non-pathological ageing processes. For all neurodegenerative conditions, we continue to lack longitudinal gene expression data covering their large temporal evolution, which hinders the understanding of the underlying dynamic molecular mechanisms. Here, we overcome this key limitation by introducing a novel gene expression contrastive trajectory inference (GE-cTI) method that reveals enriched temporal patterns in a diseased population. Evaluated on 1969 subjects in the spectrum of late-onset Alzheimer’s and Huntington’s diseases (from ROSMAP, HBTRC and ADNI datasets), this unsupervised machine learning algorithm strongly predicts neuropathological severity (e.g. Braak, amyloid and Vonsattel stages). Furthermore, when applied to in vivo blood samples at baseline (ADNI), it significantly predicts clinical deterioration and conversion to advanced disease stages, supporting the identification of a minimally invasive (blood-based) tool for early clinical screening. This technique also allows the discovery of genes and molecular pathways, in both peripheral and brain tissues, that are highly predictive of disease evolution. Eighty-five to ninety per cent of the most predictive molecular pathways identified in the brain are also top predictors in the blood. These pathways support the importance of studying the peripheral-brain axis, providing further evidence for a key role of vascular structure/functioning and immune system response. The GE-cTI is a promising tool for revealing complex neuropathological mechanisms, with direct implications for implementing personalized dynamic treatments in neurology.

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) involves many neurobiological alterations from molecular to macroscopic spatial scales, but we currently lack integrative, mechanistic brain models characterizing how factors across different biological scales interact to cause clinical deterioration in a way that is subject-specific or personalized. Neurotransmitter receptors, as important signaling molecules and potential drug targets, are key mediators of interactions between many neurobiological processes altered in AD. We present a neurotransmitter receptor-enriched multifactorial brain model, which integrates spatial distribution patterns of 15 neurotransmitter receptors from post-mortem autoradiography with multiple in-vivo neuroimaging modalities (tau, amyloid-β and glucose PET, and structural, functional and arterial spin labeling MRI) in a personalized, generative, whole-brain formulation. Applying this data-driven model to a heterogeneous aged population (N = 423, ADNI data), we observed that personalized receptor-neuroimaging interactions explained about 70% (± 20%) of the across-population variance in longitudinal changes to the six neuroimaging modalities, and up to 39.7% (P < 0.003, FWE-corrected) of inter-individual variability in AD cognitive deterioration via an axis primarily affecting executive function. Notably, based on their contribution to the clinical severity in AD, we found significant functional alterations to glutamatergic interactions affecting tau accumulation and neural activity dysfunction, and GABAergic interactions concurrently affecting neural activity dysfunction, amyloid and tau distributions, as well as significant cholinergic receptor effects on tau accumulation. Overall, GABAergic alterations had the largest effect on cognitive impairment (particularly executive function) in our AD cohort (N = 25). Furthermore, we demonstrate the clinical applicability of this approach by characterizing subjects based on individualized ‘fingerprints’ of receptor alterations. This study introduces the first robust, data-driven framework for integrating several neurotransmitter receptors, multi-modal neuroimaging and clinical data in a flexible and interpretable brain model. It enables further understanding of the mechanistic neuropathological basis of neurodegenerative progression and heterogeneity, and constitutes a promising step towards implementing personalized, neurotransmitter-based treatments.

Both healthy aging and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) are characterized by concurrent alterations in several biological factors. However, generative brain models of aging and AD are limited in incorporating the measures of these biological factors at different spatial resolutions. Here, we propose a personalized bottom-up spatiotemporal brain model that accounts for the direct interplay between hundreds of RNA transcripts and multiple macroscopic neuroimaging modalities (PET, MRI). In normal elderly and AD participants, the model identifies top genes modulating tau and amyloid-β burdens, vascular flow, glucose metabolism, functional activity, and atrophy to drive cognitive decline. The results also revealed that AD and healthy aging share specific biological mechanisms, even though AD is a separate entity with considerably more altered pathways. Overall, this personalized model offers novel insights into the multiscale alterations in the elderly brain, with important implications for identifying effective genetic targets for extending healthy aging and treating AD progression.