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The transportation sector accounts for nearly 19% of total energy consumption in Turkey, where energy demand increases rapidly depending on the economic and human population growth and the increasing number of motor vehicles. Hence, the estimation of future energy demand is of great importance to design, plan and use the transportation systems more efficiently, for which a reliable quantitative estimation is of primary concern. However, the estimation of transport energy demand is a complex task, since various model parameters are interacting with each other. In this study, artificial neural networks were used to estimate the energy demand in transportation sector in Turkey. Gross domestic product, oil prices, population, vehicle-km, ton-km and passenger-km were selected as parameters by considering the data for the period from 1975 to 2016. Seven models in total were created and analyzed. The best yielding model with the parameters of oil price, population and motor vehicle-km was determined to have the lowest error and the highest R2 values. This model was selected to estimate transport energy demand for the years 2020, 2023, 2025 and 2030.

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Introduction: Although the exact etiopathogenesis of vitiligo is unknown, the autoimmunity hypothesis is much in evidence. The autologous serum skin test (ASST) and autologous plasma skin test (APST) are in vivo methods used in the diagnosis of some autoimmune diseases, which are easy and inexpensive to perform. Aim: In this study, we investigated whether or not ASST and APST could determine autoimmunity in patients with vitiligo. Material and methods: In this study, 30 vitiligo patients presenting to the dermatology outpatient clinic and 30 healthy volunteers without any known autoimmune diseases were included. Antibodies such as tyrosinase, tyrosinase-related protein-1 (TYRP1), tyrosinase-related protein-2 (TYRP2) and melanin-concentrating hormone receptor 1 (MCHR1) antibodies determined to be associated with vitiligo were examined. In addition, the association of these antibodies with the positivity of ASST and APST, which were suggested to be associated with autoimmunity, were examined. Results: In our study, tyrosinase antibody was found to be significantly higher in vitiligo patients. ASST was positive in 12 (40%) patients with vitiligo and 8 (26.6%) control subjects. APST was positive in 8 (26.6%) of the patients with vitiligo and in 2 (6.6%) of the controls, and there was a significant difference between the groups in terms of APST positivity (p = 0.032). In addition, in our study, a significant correlation was found between TYRP1 antibody positivity and APST positivity in the patient group (p = 0.005). Conclusions: These findings suggest that we may use APST to investigate the autoimmune etiopathogenesis of vitiligo.