This paper uses a general latent variable framework to study a series of models for non-ignorable missingness due to dropout. Non-ignorable missing data modeling acknowledges that missingness may depend on not only covariates and observed outcomes at previous time points as with the standard missing at random (MAR) assumption, but also on latent variables such as values that would have been observed (missing outcomes), developmental trends (growth factors), and qualitatively different types of development (latent trajectory classes). These alternative predictors of missing data can be explored in a general latent variable framework using the Mplus program. A flexible new model uses an extended pattern-mixture approach where missingness is a function of latent dropout classes in combination with growth mixture modeling using latent trajectory classes. A new selection model allows not only an influence of the outcomes on missingness, but allows this influence to vary across latent trajectory classes. Recommendations are given for choosing models. The missing data models are applied to longitudinal data from STAR*D, the largest antidepressant clinical trial in the U.S. to date. Despite the importance of this trial, STAR*D growth model analyses using non-ignorable missing data techniques have not been explored until now. The STAR*D data are shown to feature distinct trajectory classes, including a low class corresponding to substantial improvement in depression, a minority class with a Ushaped curve corresponding to transient improvement, and a high class corresponding to no improvement. The analyses provide a new way to assess drug efficiency in the presence of dropout.

Symptoms of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are hypothesized to arise from dysfunction in brain networks linking the limbic system and cortical regions. Alterations in brain functional cortical connectivity in resting-state networks have been detected with functional imaging techniques, but neurophysiologic connectivity measures have not been systematically examined. We used weighted network analysis to examine resting state functional connectivity as measured by quantitative electroencephalographic (qEEG) coherence in 121 unmedicated subjects with MDD and 37 healthy controls. Subjects with MDD had significantly higher overall coherence as compared to controls in the delta (0.5–4 Hz), theta (4–8 Hz), alpha (8–12 Hz), and beta (12–20 Hz) frequency bands. The frontopolar region contained the greatest number of “hub nodes” (surface recording locations) with high connectivity. MDD subjects expressed higher theta and alpha coherence primarily in longer distance connections between frontopolar and temporal or parietooccipital regions, and higher beta coherence primarily in connections within and between electrodes overlying the dorsolateral prefrontal cortical (DLPFC) or temporal regions. Nearest centroid analysis indicated that MDD subjects were best characterized by six alpha band connections primarily involving the prefrontal region. The present findings indicate a loss of selectivity in resting functional connectivity in MDD. The overall greater coherence observed in depressed subjects establishes a new context for the interpretation of previous studies showing differences in frontal alpha power and synchrony between subjects with MDD and normal controls. These results can inform the development of qEEG state and trait biomarkers for MDD.

Objective To assess whether pretreatment theta current density in the rostral anterior cingulate (rACC) and medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC) differentiates responders from non-responders to antidepressant medication or placebo in a double-blinded study. Methods Pretreatment EEGs were collected from 72 subjects with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) who participated in one of three placebo-controlled trials. Subjects were randomized to receive treatment with fluoxetine, venlafaxine, or placebo. Low-resolution brain electromagnetic tomography (LORETA) was used to assess theta current density in the rACC and mOFC. Results Medication responders showed elevated rACC and mOFC theta current density compared to medication non-responders (rACC: p=0.042; mOFC: p=0.039). There was no significant difference in either brain region between placebo responders and placebo non-responders. Conclusions Theta current density in the rACC and mOFC may be useful as a biomarker for prediction of response to antidepressant medication. Significance This is the first double-blinded treatment study to examine pretreatment rACC and mOFC theta current density in relation to antidepressant response and placebo response. Results support the potential clinical utility of this approach for predicting clinical outcome to antidepressant treatments in MDD.

During the past several years, we have achieved a deeper understanding of the etiology/pathophysiology of major depressive disorder (MDD). However, this improved understanding has not translated to improved treatment outcome. Treatment often results in symptomatic improvement, but not full recovery. Clinical approaches are largely trial-and-error, and when the first treatment does not result in recovery for the patient, there is little proven scientific basis for choosing the next. One approach to enhancing treatment outcomes in MDD has been the use of standardized sequential treatment algorithms and measurement-based care. Such treatment algorithms stand in contrast to the personalized medicine approach, in which biomarkers would guide decision making. Incorporation of biomarker measurements into treatment algorithms could speed recovery from MDD by shortening or eliminating lengthy and ineffective trials. Recent research results suggest several classes of physiologic biomarkers may be useful for predicting response. These include brain structural or functional findings, as well as genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic measures. Recent data indicate that such measures, at baseline or early in the course of treatment, may constitute useful predictors of treatment outcome. Once such biomarkers are validated, they could form the basis of new paradigms for antidepressant treatment selection.

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