[1] A finite element geothermal model is developed for the outer Mackenzie Delta-Beaufort Sea shelf to predict permafrost evolution since the Last Interglacial~130-116 kaBP(cal). The purpose is to reconcile sparse observations of the depth and extent of ice-bonded permafrost with sediment properties and the paleoenvironment. Sea level curves determine, as a function of time, areas of the shelf that were subaerially exposed, promoting permafrost aggradation, and areas that were submerged, promoting permafrost degradation. Assuming as a model starting point that a paleoclimate similar to today persisted through the Last Interglacial, permafrost subsequently aggrades in depth and advances seaward from the present shoreline to the shelf/slope bathymetric break by the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)~26 kaBP(cal). Modeled permafrost exhibits reduced growth in depth and seaward progression that correlate with early and middle Wisconsin stillstands in sea level. Following the LGM and rise in sea level, offshore permafrost degrades and permafrost base rises~100 m to its present depth of 600 m. The offshore limit of modeled ice-bonded permafrost lies at the~95 m isobath, within 1 km of the bathymetric shelf/slope break. The model replicates features of offshore permafrost body observed seismically and demonstrates that warm outflow from the Mackenzie River depresses the upper surface of offshore permafrost by tens of meters to the 20 m isobath. Although Pleistocene permafrost predated the Wisconsinan, the model demonstrates that the paleoenvironment of the last 125,000 years is sufficient to develop the depth, seaward extent, and principal features of the permafrost body.

In the Mackenzie–Beaufort region, maximum permafrost thickness is 750 m in the Pleistocene Tuktoyaktuk Coastlands, less than 100 m in the Holocene Mackenzie Delta, and 500 m and anomalously warm in the Big Lake Delta Plain between the two areas. Numerical modelling has been used to derive surface temperature histories that fit ground temperatures and permafrost conditions at 12 wells in the Unipkat, Kumak, and Taglu hydrocarbon fields. The models indicate that the present Holocene Mackenzie Delta was built by fluvial processes into a submarine trough. The delta front passed a site presently some 20 km from the coast about 4.5 ka, and subsequently 58 m of ice-bonded permafrost has aggraded. In contrast, the Big Lake Delta Plain was a subaerial platform for much of the Wisconsinan. It experienced several thousand years of inundation in the Holocene, probably due to widespread development of thermokarst lakes. At sites 8–12 km from the coast, the present subaerial conditions were established 0.5–1.5 ka through lake drainage and fluvial–deltaic deposition.

The presence of a wedge of offshore permafrost on the shelf of the Canadian Beaufort Sea has been previously recognized and the consequence of a prolonged occurrence of such permafrost is the possibility of an underlying gas hydrate regime. We present the first evidence for widespread occurrences of gas hydrates across the shelf in water depths of 60-100 m using 3D and 2D multichannel seismic (MCS) data. A reflection with a polarity opposite to the seafloor was identified ~1000 m below the seafloor that mimics some of the bottom-simulating reflections (BSRs) in marine gas hydrate regimes. However, the reflection is not truly bottom-simulating, as its depth is controlled by offshore permafrost. The depth of the reflection decreases with increasing water depth, as predicted from thermal modeling of the late Wisconsin transgression. The reflection crosscuts strata and defines a zone of enhanced reflectivity beneath it, which originates from free gas accumulated at the phase boundary over time as permafrost and associated gas hydrate stability zones thin in response to the transgression. The widespread gas hydrate occurrence beneath permafrost has implications on the region including drilling hazards associated with the presence of free gas, possible overpressure, lateral migration of fluids and expulsion at the seafloor. In contrast to the permafrost-associated gas hydrates, a deep-water marine BSR was also identified on MCS profiles. The MCS data show a polarity-reversed seismic reflection associated with a low-velocity zone beneath it. The seismic data coverage in the southern Beaufort Sea shows that the deep-water marine BSR is not uniformly present across the entire region. The regional discrepancy of the BSR occurrence between the US Alaska portion and the Mackenzie Delta region may be a result of high sedimentation rates expected for the central Mackenzie delta and high abundance of mass-transport deposits that prohibit gas to accumulate within and beneath the gas hydrate stability zone.

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