Objective
Episodes of bradycardia are common and recur sporadically in preterm
infants, posing a threat to the developing brain and other vital organs. We
hypothesize that bradycardias are a result of transient temporal
destabilization of the cardiac autonomic control system and that
fluctuations in the heart rate signal might contain information that
precedes bradycardia. We investigate infant heart rate fluctuations with a
novel application of point process theory.
Methods
In 10 preterm infants, we estimate instantaneous linear measures of
the heart rate signal in neonates, use these measures to extract statistical
features of bradycardia, and propose a simplistic framework for prediction
of bradycardia.
Results
We present the performance of a prediction algorithm using
instantaneous linear measures (mean AUC = 0.79±0.018) for over 440
bradycardia events. The algorithm achieves an average forecast time of 116
seconds prior to bradycardia onset (FPR = 0.15). Our analysis reveals that
increased variance in the heart rate signal is a precursor of severe
bradycardia. This increase in variance is associated with an increase in
power from low content dynamics in the LF band (0.04–0.2 Hz) and
lower multiscale entropy values prior to bradycardia.
Conclusion
Point process analysis of the heartbeat time series reveals
instantaneous measures that can be used to predict infant bradycardia prior
to onset.
Significance
Our findings are relevant to risk stratification, predictive
monitoring, and implementation of preventative strategies for reducing
morbidity and mortality associated with bradycardia in neonatal intensive
care units.
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