Many studies have tried to establish the causal link between export expansion and economic growth. This contribution is to recognize that structural changes will change the sources of growth and this will affect the export-growth relationship. A country case study approach is used focusing on Malaysia, a country with one of the world's highest sustained growth rates and a long history of commodity trade. We use VAR analysis of Malaysian quarterly trade and GDP growth from 1965 to 1996. Trade data are disaggregated into primary and manufactures exports and causality tests are applied to the entire period as well as two subperiods #150 the 1965 #1501980 period when policy emphasis was on import substitution and the 1981#1501996 period when policies favoured export-led growth. Statistical tests confirm export-led growth for the full period and for the period to 1980 but tests on the 1981#1501996 period show growth causing exports. Primary exports had a stronger direct impact on economic growth than manufactures. The weakening support for export-led growth after Malaysia shifted to an export-oriented development strategy is associated with structural changes associated with industrialization. Interaction among trade and growth variables becomes more complex with a broadening export base and more diverse sources of growth.

One of the predicaments of traditional well testing is the requirement of shutting-in a well to conduct a pressure buildup test for the purpose of obtaining well and reservoir properties. This deterrent factor is more prominent in prolific wells due to loss of revenue and problems associated with crossflow or when bringing a well back on production. Moreover, in case of commingled reservoirs, conventional buildup provides only average values of permeability, skin, and pressure. An innovative periodic well testing technique named WTPL (Well Testing by Production Logging) has been developed in which a cyclic wave function is imposed in the wellbore by modulating the flowrate. The analysis of the acquired rate function and the resulting pressure wave then provides formation characteristics such as permeability and skin in the vicinity of the well. This technique eliminates the disadvantage of shutting-in a well and maintains the production with a modulating periodic pattern. In addition, the WTPL can be easily applied to commingled reservoirs to estimate the individual permeability and skin for each layer. This effort has also resulted in the development of a downhole flow modulation tool capable of creating the cyclic flow patterns needed for the new testing method. Introduction In developed fields, a pressure buildup test is the main tool for monitoring well productivity (permeability and skin) and reservoir pressure. However, operators are reluctant to perform such a test as it involves shutting-in their producing well. Shutting-in results in loss of revenue and in some wells with hydrate problems or excessive water production, it also could be difficult to bring the well back on production. Moreover, closing a well for a pressure buildup test might damage the near wellbore by asphaltine deposits or by water crossflow from higher pressured zones to more depleted layers. Another limitation of a conventional buildup test is in its application to commingled reservoirs where it only provides a total permeability-thickness and an average skin value. Usually, permeability is then distributed between different layers based either on small-scale permeability measurements (mainly from cores) or on the flow profile derived from interpretation of the results from production logging testing, PLT, (with questionable uniform skin assumption). In both cases, such a distribution can result in erroneous reservoir characterization. In addition, in case of significant skin contrast between layers, the total permeability-thickness can be underestimated. This paper introduces a new well testing method named "Well Testing by Production Logging" (WTPL) which does not require shutting down the production in order to obtain formation permeability and skin. WTPL imposes short periodic variations of flowrate which result in similar cyclic pressure variations. The resulting reservoir response is recorded bottomhole using a PLT string. The amplitude ratio and phase lag of the pressure relative to the flowrate can then be analyzed to provide formation properties such as permeability and skin factor. A specific flow modulation device was developed to generate periodic bottomhole rate and pressure oscillations. This tool can be combined with standard production logging tools and can be configured for both production and injection wells in several casing/tubing sizes for both high and low flowrates. In commingled wells, it can be sequentially deployed above each producing zone to provide permeability and skin values for each layer. Field examples provided in this paper will describe the application of this technique in detail. The formation properties obtained through this method are also compared with results derived from analysis of traditional pressure transient tests.

No abstract

Quality of U.S. grain exports has been a contentious issue over the past decade. Nowhere is the issue more hotly debated than for wheat. At the core of the debate has been the ability of Canada to command a premium for its wheat in foreign markets. Buyers 'perceptions of quality have been suggested as an explanation, but empirical evidence on the quality attributes responsible for this country-of-origin premium has been limited to hedonic pricing studies. This paper quantifies purchasers ' perceptions of the relative importance of quality characteristics for the world's major importing countries. This is done by calculating three indices. The attainment index measures how well buyers' perceptions of the importance of the characteristic matches buyers 'perceptions of how well it is being supplied. The supply index measures buyers' perceptions on how well a characteristic is being supplied. The demand index measures how important the buyers perceive a particular characteristic to be. Then buyers 'perceptions of the performance of U.S. and Canadian wheats are evaluated, given the perceived importance of each characteristic, and related to previous empirical results. Finally, these results are compared for alternative groupings of importing countries. La qualite des exportations des cereales americaines est un sujet de controverse depuis une dizaine d 'annees, surtout relativement au ble'. Au coeur du debat se situe 1 'aptitude du ble' canadien a commander un prix superieur sur les marches &rangers. On a propose' comme explication les notions subjectives de qualite' des acheteurs mais les preuves empiriques des caracteres qualitatifs justifiant cette prime de pays d 'origine se sont limit&s aux aspects hedoniques. Dans la presente etude, nous quantifions les perceptions que se font les acheteurs de 1 'importance relative des caracttres qualitatifs selon les principaux pays importateurs. Trois index sont calcules: 1 'indice de satisfaction determine dans quelle mesure les perceptions qu 'ont les acheteurs de 1 'importance d 'un caractere correspondent a celles qu 'ils retrouvent dans le produit livre. L 'indice de prestation indique dans quelle mesure un caractere qualitatif don& du produit livre' r&pond aux attentes de 1 'acheteur. Enfin 1 'indice d 'exigence indique 1 'importance que 1 'acheteur accorde h un caractere qualitatif donne. Nous avons ensuite &value' les perceptions des acheteurs a 1 'egard des bles americains et canadiens, selon 1 'importance suggestive accord&e h chaque caracteristique et nous les comparons a des resultats experimentaux anteiieurs.

No abstract