Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital to inform future control planning. However, the effect of malaria interventions across the varied epidemiological settings of Africa remains poorly understood owing to the absence of reliable surveillance data and the simplistic approaches underlying current disease estimates. Here we link a large database of malaria field surveys with detailed reconstructions of changing intervention coverage to directly evaluate trends from 2000 to 2015 and quantify the attributable effect of malaria disease control efforts. We found that Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in endemic Africa halved and the incidence of clinical disease fell by 40% between 2000 and 2015. We estimate that interventions have averted 663 (542–753 credible interval) million clinical cases since 2000. Insecticide-treated nets, the most widespread intervention, were by far the largest contributor (68% of cases averted). Although still below target levels, current malaria interventions have substantially reduced malaria disease incidence across the continent. Increasing access to these interventions, and maintaining their effectiveness in the face of insecticide and drug resistance, should form a cornerstone of post-2015 control strategies.

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395.001

BackgroundThe simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can cause severe and fatal disease in humans yet it is rarely included in routine public health reporting systems for malaria and its geographical range is largely unknown. Because malaria caused by P. knowlesi is a truly neglected tropical disease, there are substantial obstacles to defining the geographical extent and risk of this disease. Information is required on the occurrence of human cases in different locations, on which non-human primates host this parasite and on which vectors are able to transmit it to humans. We undertook a systematic review and ranked the existing evidence, at a subnational spatial scale, to investigate the potential geographical range of the parasite reservoir capable of infecting humans.Methodology/Principal FindingsAfter reviewing the published literature we identified potential host and vector species and ranked these based on how informative they are for the presence of an infectious parasite reservoir, based on current evidence. We collated spatial data on parasite occurrence and the ranges of the identified host and vector species. The ranked spatial data allowed us to assign an evidence score to 475 subnational areas in 19 countries and we present the results on a map of the Southeast and South Asia region.Conclusions/SignificanceWe have ranked subnational areas within the potential disease range according to evidence for presence of a disease risk to humans, providing geographical evidence to support decisions on prevention, management and prophylaxis. This work also highlights the unknown risk status of large parts of the region. Within this unknown category, our map identifies which areas have most evidence for the potential to support an infectious reservoir and are therefore a priority for further investigation. Furthermore we identify geographical areas where further investigation of putative host and vector species would be highly informative for the region-wide assessment.

methods are presented to model PROTAC-mediated ternary complex structures, which are then used to predict the efficacy of any accompanying protein degradation. Method 4B, an extension to one of our previous approaches, incorporates a clustering procedure uniquely suited for considering ternary complexes. Method 4B yields the highest proportion to date of crystal-like poses in modeled ternary complex ensembles, nearing 100% in two cases and always giving a hit rate of at least 10%. Techniques to further improve this performance for particularly troublesome cases are suggested and validated. This demonstrated ability to reliably reproduce known crystallographic ternary complex structures is further established through modeling of a newly released crystal structure. Moreover, for the far more common scenario where the structure of the ternary complex intermediate is unknown, the methods detailed in this work nonetheless consistently yield results that reliably follow experimental protein degradation trends, as established through seven retrospective case studies. These various case studies cover challenging yet common modeling situations, such as when the precise orientation of the PROTAC binding moiety in one (or both) of the protein pockets has not been experimentally established. Successful results are presented for one PROTAC targeting many proteins, for different PROTACs targeting the same protein, and even for degradation effected by an E3 ligase that has not been structurally characterized in a ternary complex. Overall, the computational modeling approaches detailed in this work should greatly facilitate PROTAC screening and design efforts, so that the many advantages of a PROTAC-based degradation approach can be effectively utilized both rapidly and at reduced cost.

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