SummaryBackgroundStatins reduce LDL cholesterol and prevent vascular events, but their net effects in people at low risk of vascular events remain uncertain.MethodsThis meta-analysis included individual participant data from 22 trials of statin versus control (n=134 537; mean LDL cholesterol difference 1·08 mmol/L; median follow-up 4·8 years) and five trials of more versus less statin (n=39 612; difference 0·51 mmol/L; 5·1 years). Major vascular events were major coronary events (ie, non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death), strokes, or coronary revascularisations. Participants were separated into five categories of baseline 5-year major vascular event risk on control therapy (no statin or low-intensity statin) (<5%, ≥5% to <10%, ≥10% to <20%, ≥20% to <30%, ≥30%); in each, the rate ratio (RR) per 1·0 mmol/L LDL cholesterol reduction was estimated.FindingsReduction of LDL cholesterol with a statin reduced the risk of major vascular events (RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·77–0·81, per 1·0 mmol/L reduction), largely irrespective of age, sex, baseline LDL cholesterol or previous vascular disease, and of vascular and all-cause mortality. The proportional reduction in major vascular events was at least as big in the two lowest risk categories as in the higher risk categories (RR per 1·0 mmol/L reduction from lowest to highest risk: 0·62 [99% CI 0·47–0·81], 0·69 [99% CI 0·60–0·79], 0·79 [99% CI 0·74–0·85], 0·81 [99% CI 0·77–0·86], and 0·79 [99% CI 0·74–0·84]; trend p=0·04), which reflected significant reductions in these two lowest risk categories in major coronary events (RR 0·57, 99% CI 0·36–0·89, p=0·0012, and 0·61, 99% CI 0·50–0·74, p<0·0001) and in coronary revascularisations (RR 0·52, 99% CI 0·35–0·75, and 0·63, 99% CI 0·51–0·79; both p<0·0001). For stroke, the reduction in risk in participants with 5-year risk of major vascular events lower than 10% (RR per 1·0 mmol/L LDL cholesterol reduction 0·76, 99% CI 0·61–0·95, p=0·0012) was also similar to that seen in higher risk categories (trend p=0·3). In participants without a history of vascular disease, statins reduced the risks of vascular (RR per 1·0 mmol/L LDL cholesterol reduction 0·85, 95% CI 0·77–0·95) and all-cause mortality (RR 0·91, 95% CI 0·85–0·97), and the proportional reductions were similar by baseline risk. There was no evidence that reduction of LDL cholesterol with a statin increased cancer incidence (RR per 1·0 mmol/L LDL cholesterol reduction 1·00, 95% CI 0·96–1·04), cancer mortality (RR 0·99, 95% CI 0·93–1·06), or other non-vascular mortality.InterpretationIn individuals with 5-year risk of major vascular events lower than 10%, each 1 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol produced an absolute reduction in major vascular events of about 11 per 1000 over 5 years. This benefit greatly exceeds any known hazards of statin therapy. Under present guidelines, such individuals would not typically be regarded as suitable for LDL-lowering statin therapy. The present report suggests, therefore, that these guidelines might need to be reconsidered.FundingBritish Hea...

This paper reports the results of a 'cost-of-illness' study of the socio-economic costs of back pain in the UK. It estimates the direct health care cost of back pain in 1998 to be pound1632 million. Approximately 35% of this cost relates to services provided in the private sector and thus is most likely paid for directly by patients and their families. With respect to the distribution of cost across different providers, 37% relates to care provided by physiotherapists and allied specialists, 31% is incurred in the hospital sector, 14% relates to primary care, 7% to medication, 6% to community care and 5% to radiology and imaging used for investigation purposes. However, the direct cost of back pain is insignificant compared to the cost of informal care and the production losses related to it, which total pound10668 million. Overall, back pain is one of the most costly conditions for which an economic analysis has been carried out in the UK and this is in line with findings in other countries. Further research is needed to establish the cost-effectiveness of alternative back pain treatments, so as to minimise cost and maximise the health benefit from the resources used in this area.

Aims/hypothesis. The aim of this study was to develop a simulation model for Type 2 diabetes that can be used to estimate the likely occurrence of major diabetes-related complications over a lifetime, in order to calculate health economic outcomes such as qualityadjusted life expectancy. Methods. Equations for forecasting the occurrence of seven diabetes-related complications and death were estimated using data on 3642 patients from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). After examining the internal validity, the UKPDS Outcomes Model was used to simulate the mean difference in expected quality-adjusted life years between the UKPDS regimens of intensive and conventional blood glucose control. Results. The model's forecasts fell within the 95% confidence interval for the occurrence of observed events during the UKPDS follow-up period. When the model was used to simulate event history over patients' lifetimes, those treated with a regimen of conventional glucose control could expect 16.35 undiscounted quality-adjusted life years, and those receiving treatment with intensive glucose control could expect 16.62 quality-adjusted life years, a difference of 0.27 (95% CI: −0.48 to 1.03). Conclusions/interpretations. The UKPDS OutcomesModel is able to simulate event histories that closely match observed outcomes in the UKPDS and that can be extrapolated over patients' lifetimes. Its validity in estimating outcomes in other groups of patients, however, remains to be evaluated. The model allows simulation of a range of long-term outcomes, which should assist in informing future economic evaluations of interventions in Type 2 diabetes. The centres of the UKPDS are listed at the end of the paper Conflict of interest. Several authors (as indicated above) are employed by the University of Oxford. This paper describes and places in the public domain a simulation model that we have called the UKPDS Outcomes Model. All of the information necessary to reproduce the UKPDS Outcomes Model is provided in this article, but it is conceivable that a future user with a commercial interest in the UKPDS Outcomes Model might prefer to use the software already created by University programmers. Depending on the nature of the proposed use of the UKPDS Outcomes Model, the University of Oxford might charge a fee in this case.

SummaryBackgroundThe incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal cancer, a disease affecting younger patients, is rapidly increasing. Cetuximab, an epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitor, has been proposed for treatment de-escalation in this setting to reduce the toxicity of standard cisplatin treatment, but no randomised evidence exists for the efficacy of this strategy.MethodsWe did an open-label randomised controlled phase 3 trial at 32 head and neck treatment centres in Ireland, the Netherlands, and the UK, in patients aged 18 years or older with HPV-positive low-risk oropharyngeal cancer (non-smokers or lifetime smokers with a smoking history of <10 pack-years). Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive, in addition to radiotherapy (70 Gy in 35 fractions), either intravenous cisplatin (100 mg/m2 on days 1, 22, and 43 of radiotherapy) or intravenous cetuximab (400 mg/m2 loading dose followed by seven weekly infusions of 250 mg/m2). The primary outcome was overall severe (grade 3–5) toxicity events at 24 months from the end of treatment. The primary outcome was assessed by intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN33522080.FindingsBetween Nov 12, 2012, and Oct 1, 2016, 334 patients were recruited (166 in the cisplatin group and 168 in the cetuximab group). Overall (acute and late) severe (grade 3–5) toxicity did not differ significantly between treatment groups at 24 months (mean number of events per patient 4·8 [95% CI 4·2–5·4] with cisplatin vs 4·8 [4·2–5·4] with cetuximab; p=0·98). At 24 months, overall all-grade toxicity did not differ significantly either (mean number of events per patient 29·2 [95% CI 27·3–31·0] with cisplatin vs 30·1 [28·3–31·9] with cetuximab; p=0·49). However, there was a significant difference between cisplatin and cetuximab in 2-year overall survival (97·5% vs 89·4%, hazard ratio 5·0 [95% CI 1·7–14·7]; p=0·001) and 2-year recurrence (6·0% vs 16·1%, 3·4 [1·6–7·2]; p=0·0007).InterpretationCompared with the standard cisplatin regimen, cetuximab showed no benefit in terms of reduced toxicity, but instead showed significant detriment in terms of tumour control. Cisplatin and radiotherapy should be used as the standard of care for HPV-positive low-risk patients who are able to tolerate cisplatin.FundingCancer Research UK.

CVD is a leading public health problem. Our study is the first to assess the economic burden of CVD across the EU, and our results should help policy makers evaluate policy impact and prioritize research expenditures. However, because of data unavailability, our study has important limitations, which highlight the need for more accurate and comparable CVD-specific information.