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This article examines the status of globalization as a causal factor in political mobilization and proposes a research agenda for diagnosing the impact of global socio‐economic dynamics on ideological orientation in national polities. Focusing on Europe’s established democracies, the article outlines recent shifts in Europe’s ideological landscape and explores the mechanisms generating a new pattern of political conflict and electoral competition. It advances the hypothesis that the knowledge economy of open borders has brought about a political cleavage intimately linked to citizens’ perceptions of the social impact of global economic integration. In this context, the polarization of life chances is determined by institutionally mediated exposure to both the economic opportunities and the hazards of globalization. Fostered by the increasing relevance of the international for state‐bound publics, new fault‐lines of social conflict are emerging, giving shape to a new, “opportunity‐risk,” axis of political competition. As the novel political cleavage challenges the conventional left–right divide, it is likely to radically alter Europe’s ideological geography.

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This study discerns peculiarities in the electoral mobilisation in EU member states in recent years and examines the effect of current social transformations on political discourse and voting behaviour. The overall change is traced to the emergence of opportunity-vs-risk vectors of political identification, challenging the capital vs labour dynamics of conflict. The decline in electoral support for traditional Left parties is attributed to the failure of the European Left to adjust to this realignment.

This is an inquiry into the economic psychology of trust: that is, what model of the political economy of complex liberal democracies is conducive to attitudes that allow difference to be perceived in the terms of 'significant other', rather than as a menacing or an irrelevant stranger. As a test case of prevailing perceptions of otherness in European societies, I examine attitudes towards Turkey's accession to the European Union.