Early prediction of school dropout is a serious problem in education, but it is not an easy issue to resolve. On the one hand, there are many factors that can influence student retention. On the other hand, the traditional classification approach used to solve this problem normally has to be implemented at the end of the course to gather maximum information in order to achieve the highest accuracy. In this paper, we propose a methodology and a specific classification algorithm to discover comprehensible prediction models of student dropout as soon as possible. We used data gathered from 419 high schools students in Mexico. We carried out several experiments to predict dropout at different steps of the course, to select the best indicators of dropout and to compare our proposed algorithm versus some classical and imbalanced well‐known classification algorithms. Results show that our algorithm was capable of predicting student dropout within the first 4–6 weeks of the course and trustworthy enough to be used in an early warning system.

Learning from data streams in the presence of concept drift is among the biggest challenges of contemporary machine learning. Algorithms designed for such scenarios must take into an account the potentially unbounded size of data, its constantly changing nature, and the requirement for real-time processing. Ensemble approaches for data stream mining have gained significant popularity, due to their high predictive capabilities and effective mechanisms for alleviating concept drift. In this paper, we propose a new ensemble method named Kappa Updated Ensemble (KUE). It is a combination of online and block-based ensemble approaches that uses Kappa statistic for dynamic weighting and selection of base classifiers. In order to achieve a higher diversity among base learners, each of them is trained using a different subset of features and updated with new instances with given probability following a Poisson distribution. Furthermore, we update the ensemble with new classifiers only when they contribute positively to the improvement of the quality of the ensemble. Finally, each base classifier in KUE is capable of abstaining itself for taking a part in voting, thus increasing the overall robustness of KUE. An extensive experimental study shows that KUE is capable of outperforming state-of-the-art ensembles on standard and imbalanced drifting data streams while having a low computational complexity. Moreover, we analyze the use of Kappa versus accuracy to drive the criterion to select and update the classifiers, the contribution of the abstaining mechanism, the contribution of the diversification of classifiers, and the contribution of the hybrid architecture to update the classifiers in an online manner.

No abstract

Gravitation is a fundamental interaction whose concept and effects applied to data classification become a novel data classification technique. The simple principle of data gravitation classification (DGC) is to classify data samples by comparing the gravitation between different classes. However, the calculation of gravitation is not a trivial problem due to the different relevance of data attributes for distance computation, the presence of noisy or irrelevant attributes, and the class imbalance problem. This paper presents a gravitation-based classification algorithm which improves previous gravitation models and overcomes some of their issues. The proposed algorithm, called DGC+, employs a matrix of weights to describe the importance of each attribute in the classification of each class, which is used to weight the distance between data samples. It improves the classification performance by considering both global and local data information, especially in decision boundaries. The proposal is evaluated and compared to other well-known instance-based classification techniques, on 35 standard and 44 imbalanced data sets. The results obtained from these experiments show the great performance of the proposed gravitation model, and they are validated using several nonparametric statistical tests.

No abstract