Our paper investigates the impact of rising inequality in a two-country macroeconomic model with an agent-based household sector characterised by peer effects in consumption. In particular, the model highlights the role of inequality in determining diverging balance of payments dynamics within a currency union. Inequality may drive the two countries into different growth patterns: where peer effects in consumption interact with higher credit availability, rising income inequality leads to the emergence of a debt-led growth. Where social norms determine weaker emulation and credit availability is lower, an export-led regime arises. Eventually, a crisis emerges endogenously due to the sudden-stop of capital ows from the net lending country, triggered by the excessive risk associated to the dramatic amount of private debt accumulated by households in the borrowing country. Monte Carlo simulations for a wide range of calibrations confirm the robustness of our results.
We introduce a macroeconomic model with heterogeneous households and an aggregate banking sector in order to analyze the impact of rising income inequality under different credit scenarios. Growing inequality produces debt-led consumption boom dynamics when the banking sector is characterized by a lower capital requirement and a higher willingness to lend. Instead, when inequality rises but the banking sector is highly regulated, aggregate demand and output fall. Our results also yield new insights on the appropriate fiscal policy reaction to stabilize the economy: acting on the progressivity of the tax system seems more effective than a proactive countercyclical fiscal policy. (JEL C63, D31, E62, G01) * We are particularly grateful to
In this paper the authors extend the macroeconomic agent-based model described in Delli Gatti, D., Desiderio, S., Gaffeo, E., Cirillo, P. and Gallegati, M. (Macroeconomics from the bottom-up, 2011) with the inclusion of a bank-bank network that mimics real-world dynamics of interbank markets. They also introduce a public sector and other modifications in order to carry out different policy experiments. More specifically, they test the implementation of a monetary policy by means of a standard Taylor rule, an unconventional monetary policy (i.e. helicopter drop) and a set of macroprudential regulations. The authors explore the properties of the model for such different scenarios. The results shed some light on the effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in an economy with an interbank market during times of crises.
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