BackgroundHost factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6‐month mortality in IE.Methods and ResultsUsing a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]–Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000–2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6‐month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE‐PLUS, 2008–2012, n=1197). The 6‐month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE‐PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE‐PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left‐sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6‐month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62–0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables.ConclusionsSix‐month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE.

In this prospective, multinational cohort of patients with S. aureus PVIE, EVS was not associated with reduced 1-year mortality. The decision to pursue EVS should be individualized for each patient, based upon infection-specific characteristics rather than solely upon the microbiology of the infection causing PVIE.

Objective To 1) describe clinical characteristics of adult patients in Chile with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) associated with influenza viruses, and 2) analyze virus subtypes identified in specimens collected from those patients, hospital resources used in clinical management, clinical evolution, and risk factors associated with a fatal outcome, using observational data from the SARI surveillance network (SARInet). Methods Adults hospitalized from 1 July 2011 to 31 December 2015 with influenza-associated SARI at a SARI sentinel surveillance hospital in Santiago were identified and the presence of influenza in all cases confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), using respiratory samples. Results A total of 221 patients (mean age: 74.1 years) were hospitalized with influenza-associated SARI during the study period. Of this study cohort, 91.4% had risk factors for complications and 34.3% had been vaccinated during the most recent campaign. Pneumonia was the most frequent clinical manifestation, occurring in 57.0% of the cohort; other manifestations included influenza-like illness, exacerbated chronic bronchitis, decompensated heart failure, and asthmatic crisis. Cases occurred year-round, with an epidemic peak during autumn–winter. Both influenza A (H1N1pdm09 and H3N2) and B virus co-circulated. Critical care beds were required for 26.7% of the cohort, and 19.5% needed ventilatory assistance. Multivariate analysis identified four significant factors associated with in-hospital mortality: 1) being bedridden (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 22.3; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.0–164); 2) admission to critical care unit (aOR: 8.9; CI: 1.44–55); 3) Pa0 2 /Fi0 2 ratio < 250 (aOR: 5.8; CI: 1.02–33); and 4) increased serum creatinine concentration (> 1 mg/dL) (aOR: 5.47; CI: 1.20–24). Seasonal influenza vaccine was identified as a significant protective factor (aOR: 0.14; CI: 0.021–0.90). Conclusions Influenza-associated SARI affected mainly elderly patients with underlying conditions. Most patients evolved to respiratory failure and more than one-quarter required critical care beds. Clinical presentation was variable. Death was associated with host characteristics and disease-associated conditions, and vaccine was protective. Virus type did not influence outcome.

Human Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis infections emerged in Chile in 1994. S. enterica serotype Enteritidis phage type 1 isolates predominated in the north, and phage type 4 isolates predominated in the central and southern regions. A study was planned to characterize this epidemic using the best discriminatory typing technique. Research involved 441 S. enterica serotype Enteritidis isolates, including clinical preepidemic samples (n ‫؍‬ 74; 1975 to 1993) and epidemic (n ‫؍‬ 199), food (n ‫؍‬ 72), poultry (n ‫؍‬ 57), and some Latin American (n ‫؍‬ 39) isolates. The best method was selected based on a sample of preepidemic isolates, analyzing the discriminatory power (DP) obtained by phage typing and randomly amplified polymorphic DNA and pulsed-field gel electophoresis (PFGE) analysis. The highest DP was associated with BlnI PFGE-bacteriophage typing analysis (0.993). A total of 38 BlnI patterns (B patterns) were identified before the epidemic period, 19 since 1994, and only 4 in both periods. Two major clusters were identified by phylogenetic analysis, and the predominant B patterns clustered in the same branch. Combined analysis revealed that specific B patternphage type combinations (subtypes) disappeared before 1994, that different genotypes associated with S. enterica serotype Enteritidis phage type 4 had been observed since 1988, and that strain diversity increased before the expansion of S. enterica serotype Enteritidis in 1994. Predominant subtype B3-phage type 4 was associated with the central and southern regions, and subtype B38-phage type 1 was associated with the north (P < 0.0001). Food and poultry isolates matched the predominant S. enterica serotype Enteritidis subtypes, but isolates identified in neighboring countries (Peru and Bolivia) did not match S. enterica serotype Enteritidis subtypes identified in the north of Chile. The results of this work demonstrate that genetic diversity, replacement, and expansion of specific S. enterica serotype Enteritidis subtypes were associated with epidemic changes.