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Marginal semi-arid forests in areas currently affected by climate change are a challenge to forest management, which has to focus on key functional traits that can effectively contribute to resistance under extreme drought. We studied the effects of thinning in a marginal forest by quantifying functional responses relating to growth, carbon and water fluxes. Two experimental plots were established, one thinned in 2012 and the other one left as a control. The environmental conditions varied substantially during the 4-year study period, although dry years predominated. There were signs of dieback in the control with a decreasing inter-annual trend in LAI, as opposed to the treated plots, where LAI by the end of the study almost reached pre-thinning levels. Sap flow and transpiration were greatly enhanced by the treatment, with thinned trees transpiring 22.4 l tree -1 day -1 in the growing season, about twice the control figures. The seasonal patterns of transpiration and soil moisture were uncoupled, indicating a contribution of deep groundwater to the former flux. In the control, limitations to water and carbon dynamics (canopy conductance) occurred at soil moisture values below 16%, whereas in the thinned trees these limitations appeared when soil moisture dropped below 10%.Overall, oaks' transpiration was enhanced with thinning to the point that stand-water use surpassed that of the control by the second half of the study period, averaging 24% of gross rainfall in both plots. Soil evaporation increased from 12 to 20% of gross rainfall after treatment in the overall period. The treatment had a profound watering effect in this marginal forest, led by fewer trees using the same amount of water as those in the untreated overstocked plot. This research may provide guidelines for ecohydrology-oriented silviculture in stands experiencing tree encroachment and transformation into shrublands that are more prone to global change-induced disturbances.

Water is the key element that modulates the provision of goods and services together with global/climate stressors affecting semiarid forests. In this sense, there is a need to improve the understanding and quantification of forest and water relationships as affected by forest management. This work addresses this issue by comparing net rainfall (Pn) redistribution into different belowground hydrological processes (BHP) in two forest types after a thinning treatment: a holm oak coppice (HU) and a post-fire Aleppo pine regeneration (CAL). The relative contribution (RI) of forest structure, antecedent soil moisture (st), rainfall and meteorological conditions on the BHP was assessed through boosted regression trees models. In both sites, the RI of the forest structure itself was limited (<10%). However, st, which clearly increased significantly with thinning, received an average RI of 29%. Surface and subsurface lateral flows showed values <1% of gross rainfall (Pg) in either site and were not significantly affected by thinning. On the other hand, soil moisture and drainage were affected by the thinning treatment, although with different extent depending on the site: in the drier site (CAL), the increased Pn in the thinning was mainly allocated into increased soil water content, with very limited improvement in drainage (<10 mm/year); in contrast, in the wetter continental site of HU, drainage to deeper soil layers was the most remarkable effect of thinning (50 mm/year higher than in control), given the higher st and hence the lower soil water storage available. Thinning also improved the response of BHP during drought, making these processes more elastic and less vulnerable to climatic extremes. The results presented here complement those previously reported on rainfall partitioning in these sites and all together provide a comprehensive understanding of the short-term effect (3-4 years) of water-oriented silviculture Quercus ilex and Pinus halepensis low-biomass semiarid forests. Questions such as the long-term effects of thinning remain open for these ecosystems. SOC e g Kg-1 28.5±22.1 103.5±32.4 pH (water) 8.3±0.2 7.9±0.2 Carbonates (g g-1 dry soil) 0.34±0.15 0.24±0.10

Abstract. Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream-aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads from SWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3DMS inputs for assessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Three climate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to three different general circulation models (GCMs) for emission scenario A1B that covers the control period, and short-, medium-and long-term future periods. A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the study of historical trends (from remote-sensing images) and key driving forces to explain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios and projections were used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automata technique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. Simulated values of river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and nitrate concentrations fit well to the observed ones. The results show the response of groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate polPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosc...

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