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Strong fluid underpressures have been detected in Paleozoic strata in the eastern Michigan Basin, with hydraulic heads reaching~400 m below land surface (~4 MPa underpressure) and~200 m below sea level in strata where unusually low permeabilities (~10 À20 -10 À23 m 2 ) were measured in situ. Multiple glaciations, including three with as much as 3 km of ice cover at the site in the last 120 ka, suggest a causal link with the underpressures. We examined this possibility using a one-dimensional groundwater flow model incorporating mechanical loading from both ice weight and lithospheric flexure. Because hydrologic and mechanical changes during glaciation are not well characterized and subsurface properties are imperfectly known, the model was used inversely to estimate flexural loads and loosely constrained permeabilities by matching observed pressures. Acceptable matches were obtained for a surprisingly wide range of scenarios with permeabilities close to measured values and plausible flexural loads. Matches were not obtained when too many parameters were preselected, or when permeabilities were constrained to be significantly larger than measured values. In successful model runs groundwater expulsion under glacial-mechanical loads caused the underpressuring, and flexural loads were important if aquifer and sub-glacial pressures were significantly elevated during glaciation. Simulated fluid pressures in the low-permeability strata fluctuated by 30-40 MPa during glacial cycles but resulted in advective transport of only tens of meters or less. Although other mechanisms cannot be ruled out, we conclude that glacial-mechanical forcing of a water-saturated system can explain the observed underpressures.

[1] Uncertainty about the origin of anomalous fluid pressures in certain geologic settings has caused researchers to take a second look at osmosis, or flow driven by chemical potential differences, as a pressure-generating process in the subsurface. Interest in geological osmosis has also increased because of an in situ experiment by Neuzil (2000) suggesting that Pierre Shale could generate large osmotic pressures when highly compacted. In the last few years, additional laboratory and in situ experiments have greatly increased the number of data on osmotic properties of argillaceous formations, but they have not been systematically examined. In this paper we compile these data and explore their implications for osmotic pressure generation in subsurface systems. Rather than base our analysis on osmotic efficiencies, which depend strongly on concentration, we calculated values of a quantity we term osmotic specific surface area (A so ) that, in principle, is a property of the porous medium only. The A so values are consistent with a surprisingly broad spectrum of osmotic behavior in argillaceous formations, and all the formations tested exhibited at least a modest ability to generate osmotic pressure. It appears possible that under appropriate conditions some formations can be highly effective osmotic membranes able to generate osmotic pressures exceeding 30 MPa (3 km of head) at porosities as high as $0.1 and pressures exceeding 10 MPa at porosities as high as $0.2. These findings are difficult to reconcile with the lack of compelling field evidence for osmotic pressures, and we propose three explanations for the disparity:(1) Our analysis is flawed and argillaceous formations are less effective osmotic membranes than it suggests; (2) the necessary subsurface conditions, significant salinity differences within intact argillaceous formations, are rare; or (3) osmotic pressures are unlikely to be detected and are not recognized when encountered. The last possibility, that osmotic pressures routinely escape detection or are attributed to other mechanisms, has important implications for understanding subsurface flow regimes.Citation: Neuzil, C. E., and A. M. Provost (2009), Recent experimental data may point to a greater role for osmotic pressures in the subsurface, Water Resour. Res., 45, W03410,

Regional-scale groundwater flow modeling of the Fennoscandian shield suggests that groundwater flow can be strongly affected by future climate change and glaciation. We considered variable-density groundwater flow in a 1500-km-long and approximately 10-km-deep cross-section through southern Sweden. Groundwater flow and shield brine transport in the cross-sectional model were analyzed under projected surface conditions for the next 140 ka. Simulations suggest that blockage of recharge and discharge by low-permeability permafrost or coldbased ice causes sinking of brine and consequent freshening of near-surface water in areas of natural discharge. Although recharge of basal meltwater is limited by the requirement that water pressure at the base of the ice sheet not exceed the pressure exerted by the weight of the ice, warm-based ice with basal melting creates a potential for groundwater recharge rates much larger than those of present, ice-free conditions. In the simulations, regional-scale redistribution of recharged water by subsurface flow is minor over the duration of a glacial advance (approximately 10 ka). During glacial retreat, significant upward flow of groundwater may occur below the ice sheet owing to pressure release. If the mechanical loading efficiency of the rocks is high, both subsurface penetration of meltwater during glacial advance and up-flow during glacial retreat are reduced because of loading-induced pressure changes. The maximum rate of groundwater discharge in the simulations occurs at the receding ice margin, and some discharge occurs below incursive postglacial seas. Recharge of basal meltwater could decrease the concentration of dissolved solids significantly below present-day levels at depths of up to several kilometers and may bring oxygenated conditions to an otherwise reducing chemical environment for periods exceeding 10 ka.

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