Inter model variations in global temperature response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide stem mostly from uncertainties in modeled climate feedbacks. To study potential reductions in model feedback uncertainties, we estimate observed feedbacks in response to internal variability using changes in Top Of the Atmosphere energy balance with temperature. We compare those observations with internal variability feedbacks from historical simulations of coupled and atmosphere‐only experiments from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to identify that simulated feedbacks exhibit biases in the tropics, subtropics, and the Southern Ocean. Furthermore, we find a relation between simulated longwave and shortwave internal variability feedbacks and those where atmospheric carbon dioxide is abruptly quadrupled. In the model range of internal variability feedbacks, the observations are more consistent with moderately negative longwave feedback, and weak shortwave feedback, but the observations can't be used to rule out any models or their long‐term feedback.

Increases of atmospheric water vapor holding capacity with temperature (7% K −1 -8% K −1 , CC-rate) can lead to increasing extreme precipitation (EP). Observations show that tropical EP has increased during the last five decades with a rate higher than in the extratropics. Global climate models (GCM's) diverge in the magnitude of increase in the tropics, and cloud-resolving models (CRM's) indicate correlations between changes in tropical EP and organization of deep convection. We conducted globalscale aquaplanet experiments at a wide range of resolutions with explicit and parameterized convection to bridge the gap between GCM's and CRM's. We found increases of tropical EP beyond the CC rate, with similar magnitudes when using explicit convection and parametrized convection at the resolution it is tuned for. Those super-CC rates are produced due to strengthening updrafts where extreme precipitation occurs, and they do not exhibit relations with changes in convective organization. Plain Language Summary Theory and observations indicate tropical extreme precipitationmight increase with global warming. Projections from climate models agree on increases in the extratropics, but not in the tropics. More idealized simulations indicate links between increases of tropical extreme precipitation and changes in the spatial organization of the meteorological systems producing those extremes. Using a novel model approach, we found that tropical extreme precipitation increases with warming more than expected due to increases in the dynamics of the extreme precipitation systems, whereas changes in the spatial organization have a small role.

Increases of atmospheric water vapor holding capacity with temperature (7% K−1–8% K−1, CC‐rate) can lead to increasing extreme precipitation (EP). Observations show that tropical EP has increased during the last five decades with a rate higher than in the extratropics. Global climate models (GCM's) diverge in the magnitude of increase in the tropics, and cloud‐resolving models (CRM's) indicate correlations between changes in tropical EP and organization of deep convection. We conducted global‐scale aquaplanet experiments at a wide range of resolutions with explicit and parameterized convection to bridge the gap between GCM's and CRM's. We found increases of tropical EP beyond the CC rate, with similar magnitudes when using explicit convection and parametrized convection at the resolution it is tuned for. Those super‐CC rates are produced due to strengthening updrafts where extreme precipitation occurs, and they do not exhibit relations with changes in convective organization.