Lake outbursts floods is belonging to the hydrometeorological hazards. They occur as a result of destruction of snow-ice or earth dams and are most typical for lakes of alpine and polar regions. Glacial lakes outbursts floods (GLOF) are widely spread on water bodies of Antarctic oases. Methods for GLOF’s hazard assessment include monitoring, component analysis, point-by-point estimates, etc.) often overestimate the degree of the GLOF’s hazard compare to the real situation. The article presents the first experience of using the method of constructing composite indices (CI) based on territorial determinants for assessing the GLOF’s hazard. The case study of using of CI on water bodies located in the Larsemann Hills Oasis (Brocknes Peninsula, East Antarctica) is presented in the article. The study is based on the incito data obtained by the authors and the archival materials of the Russian Antarctic Expedition (RAE) in 2008–2021, collected in the PAULAS database. The calculations of CI show that the results are generally consistent with the in-cito measurements. The results are presented as maps showing the degree of GLOF’s hazard and the most vulnerable sections of the routes connecting wintering stations to the airfield. The intervals of changes for most of the considered criteria, used for CI calculation, were determined by expert method, and, therefore, largely depended on the experience of researchers and their understanding of the natural processes. The future studies will be supposed to refine and possibly supplement the list of criteria. Nevertheless, in the conditions of shortage of water level field measurements, the considered method can be used to assess the GLOF’s hazard of poorly studied and unstudied water bodies not only of Antarctic oases, but also of high-mountain glacial lakes.
The issues of ensuring equality in the field of health and improving the level of public health have become more important than ever before at the present time. The reason for everything is the appearance and rapid spread of coronavirus infection (COVID-19). The scale of the epidemic, which covers countries and regions on all continents without exception, indicates its pandemic nature. In these conditions, as before, a key role in solving the issues raised is assigned to research on the social determinants of public health and their assessment. Research in this direction is carried out taking into account the multifactorial nature of social conditions on the basis of a component-by-component analysis of determinants and integral criteria. The article presents the results of the analysis of the incidence of COVID-19 in the first year (2020) of the pandemic on the scale of municipal urban districts of the Kaliningrad region. The ranking of the territory of urban districts by the level of morbidity was carried out. In general, municipalities with an average (10–15 cases per 1000 people) and a high (15–22 cases per 1000 people) incidence rate prevail among urban districts. The incidence rate of COVID-19 is compared with the composite indicator. The composite indicator (CI) acts as an integral criterion for assessing the favorability of social conditions for public health. The composite indicator is formed by additive “convolution” of eight parameters. The convolution procedure is carried out taking into account the assignment of the weight of individual indicators for non-numeric, inaccurate and incomplete information. The results of the spatial analysis of the composite indicator indicate the relative geographical diversity of assessments of social conditions at the level of urban districts. It is noted that the social environment in 15 out of 22 municipalities is characterized by unfavorable and the most unfavorable conditions for public health. At the municipal level, high values of the morbidity rate are usually associated with low values of the composite indicator. The results of spatial correlation analysis confirmed the existence of a negative relationship between the CP value and the incidence rate. The correlation coefficient is—0.46. Research on the social determinants of public health should be included in the list of priorities in the implementation of public health policy at the municipal level.
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