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Porównanie wykorzystania sieci neuronowych i analizy dyskryminacyjnej w ocenie niewypłacalności

One of the most valid tasks in credit risk evaluation is the proper classification of potential good and bad customers. Reduction of the number of loans granted to companies of questionable credibility can significantly influence banks' performance. An important element in credit risk assessment is a prior identification of factors which affect companies' standing. Since that standing has an impact on credibility and solvency of entities. The research presented in the paper has two main goals. The first is to identify the most important factors (chosen financial ratios) which determine company's performance and consequently influence its credit risk level when granted financial resources. The question also arises whether the line of business has any impact on factors that should be included in the analysis as the input. The other aim was to compare the results of chosen neural networks with credit scoring system used in a bank during credit risk decision-making process.

The financial sector (banks, financial institutions, etc.) is the sector most exposed to financial and credit risk, as one of the basic objectives of banks' activity (as a specific enterprise) is granting credit and loans. Because credit risk is one of the problems constantly faced by banks, identification of potential good and bad customers is an extremely important task. This paper investigates the use of different structures of neural networks to support the preliminary credit risk decision-making process. The results are compared among the models and juxtaposed with real-world data. Moreover, different sets and subsets of entry data are analyzed to find the best input variables (financial ratios).

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