Climate is changing at a fast pace, causing widespread, profound consequences for living organisms. Failure to adjust the timing of life-cycle events to climate may jeopardize populations by causing ecological mismatches to the life cycle of other species and abiotic factors. Population declines of some migratory birds breeding in Europe have been suggested to depend on their inability to adjust migration phenology so as to keep track of advancement of spring events at their breeding grounds. In fact, several migrants have advanced their spring arrival date, but whether such advancement has been sufficient to compensate for temporal shift in spring phenophases or, conversely, birds have become ecologically mismatched, is still an unanswered question, with very few exceptions. We used a novel approach based on accumulated winter and spring temperatures (degree-days) as a proxy for timing of spring biological events to test if the progress of spring at arrival to the breeding areas by 117 European migratory bird species has changed over the past five decades. Migrants, and particularly those wintering in sub-Saharan Africa, now arrive at higher degree-days and may have therefore accumulated a 'thermal delay', thus possibly becoming increasingly mismatched to spring phenology. Species with greater 'thermal delay' have shown larger population decline, and this evidence was not confounded by concomitant ecological factors or by phylogenetic effects. These findings provide general support to the largely untested hypotheses that migratory birds are becoming ecologically mismatched and that failure to respond to climate change can have severe negative impacts on their populations. The novel approach we adopted can be extended to the analysis of ecological consequences of phenological response to climate change by other taxa.

 Joint Species Distribution Modelling (JSDM) is becoming an increasingly popular statistical method for analyzing data in community ecology. JSDM allow the integration of community ecology data with data on environmental covariates, species traits, phylogenetic relationships, and the spatiotemporal context of the study, providing predictive insights into community assembly processes from non-manipulative observational data of species communities. Hierarchical Modelling of Species Communities (HMSC) is a general and flexible framework for fitting JSDMs, yet its full range of functionality has remained restricted to Matlab users only. To make HMSC accessible to the wider community of ecologists, we introduce HMSC-R 3.0, a userfriendly R implementation of the framework described in Ovaskainen et al (Ecology Letters, 20 (5), 561-576, 2017) and further extended in several later publications. We illustrate the use of the package by providing a series of five vignettes that apply HMSC-R 3.0 to simulated and real data. HMSC-R applications to simulated data involve single-species models, models of small communities, and models of large species communities. They demonstrate the estimation of species responses to environmental covariates and how these depend on species traits, as well as the estimation of residual species associations. They further demonstrate how HMSC-R can be applied to normally distributed data, count data, and presence-absence data. The real data consist of bird counts in a spatio-temporally structured dataset, environmental covariates, species traits and phylogenetic relationships. The vignettes demonstrate how to construct and fit many kinds of models, how to examine MCMC convergence, how to examine the explanatory and predictive powers of the models, how to assess parameter estimates, and how to make predictions. The package, along with the extended vignettes, makes JSDM fitting and post-processing easily accessible to ecologists familiar with R.

E. 2004. Spring arrival of birds depends on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Á/ J. Avian Biol. 35: 210 Á/216.The timing of arrival of 81 migratory species in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was studied at two Finnish bird observatories (1970 Á/99). Timing was determined for the first migrants and for the peak of migration, as well as for the early, median and late phases of migration, defined as the dates when the seasonal cumulative sum of birds reached 5%, 50% and 95%, respectively. For most species, the timing of arrival correlated negatively with the NAO in all phases of migration: the correlation was significant for 79% of species studied. Thus, most species arrived in Finland early when the NAO was positive and indicative of mild and rainy winters in northern Europe. Although all phases of migration correlated negatively with the NAO, the correlations were more negative for the early than for the late phases of migration. Since the NAO did not show a significant trend during the study period, the correlations indicate that the timing of birds followed stochastic fluctuations in the NAO. This finding suggests that most Finnish migratory birds are able to adjust the timing of spring arrival in response to climatic change without time delay.

Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large‐scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s–80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s–80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.