River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters [1], but their socioeconomic impacts under contrasting warming levels remain little explored [2]. Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage, and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C [3]) and socioeconomic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in absence of future adaptation. At 1.5°C, depending on the socioeconomic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70 to 83%, direct flood damage by 160 to 240%, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 to 0.29%. In a 2°C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50% higher, direct economic damage doubles, and welfare losses grow to 0.4%. Impacts are notably higher under 3C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have uneven regional distribution, with greatest losses observed over the Asian continent at all specific warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation effortsperhaps through infrastructural investment [4]is needed to offset increasing river flood risk in the future.

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Abstract. There is growing concern in Europe about the possible rise in the severity and frequency of extreme drought events as a manifestation of climate change. In order to plan suitable adaptation strategies it is important for decision makers to know how drought conditions will develop at regional scales. This paper therefore addresses the issue of future developments in streamflow drought characteristics across Europe. Through offline coupling of a hydrological model with an ensemble of bias-corrected climate simulations (IPCC SRES A1B) and a water use scenario (Economy First), long-term (1961-2100) ensemble streamflow simulations are generated that account for changes in climate, and the uncertainty therein, and in water consumption. Using extreme value analysis we derive minimum flow and deficit indices and evaluate how the magnitude and severity of lowflow conditions may evolve throughout the 21st century. This analysis shows that streamflow droughts will become more severe and persistent in many parts of Europe due to climate change, except for northern and northeastern parts of Europe. In particular, southern regions will face strong reductions in low flows. Future water use will aggravate the situation by 10-30 % in southern Europe, whereas in some sub-regions in western, central and eastern Europe a climate-driven signal of reduced droughts may be reversed due to intensive water use. The multi-model ensemble projections of more frequent and severe streamflow droughts in the south and decreasing drought hazard in the north are highly significant, while the projected changes are more dissonant in a transition zone in between.

Flood hazard maps at trans-national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans-national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan-European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long-term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan-European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan-European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale.

Keywords:EURO-CORDEX climate projections RCP 8.5 Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) Flood risk Potential flood damage A B S T R A C T At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called "high end" climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 Bs, which is projected to rise at 20-40 Bs in 2050 and 30-100 Bs in 2080, depending on the future economic growth. 2015 Z. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).