Epidemic outbreaks are extreme events that become more frequent and severe, associated with large social and real costs. It is therefore important to assess whether countries are prepared to manage epidemiological risks. We use a fully data-driven approach to measure epidemiological susceptibility risk at the country level using time-varying information. We apply both principal component analysis (PCA) and dynamic factor model (DFM) to deal with the presence of strong cross-section dependence in the data. We conduct extensive in-sample model evaluations of 168 countries covering 17 indicators for the 2010–2019 period. The results show that the robust PCA method accounts for about 90% of total variability, whilst the DFM accounts for about 76% of the total variability. Our index could therefore provide the basis for developing risk assessments of epidemiological risk contagion. It could be also used by organizations to assess likely real consequences of epidemics with useful managerial implications.

Statistical techniques, when applied to data obtained by chemical investigations on ancient artworks, are usually expected to recognize groups of objects to classify the archeological finds, to attribute the provenance of items compared with earlier investigated ones, or to determine whether an archaelogical attribution is possible or not. The statistical technique most frequently used in archeometry is the principal component analysis (PCA), because of its simplicity in theory and implementation. However, the application of PCA to archeometric data showed severe limitations because of its linear feature. Indeed, PCA is inadequate to classify data whose behavior describe a curve or a curved subspace of the original data space. As a consequence of it, an amount of information is lost because the multi-dimensional data space is compressed into a lower-dimensional subspace including principal components. The aim of this work is then to test a novel statistical technique for archeometry. We propose a nonlinear PCA method to extract maximum chemical information by plotting data on the smallest number of principal components and to answer archeological questions. The higher accuracy and effectiveness of nonlinear PCA approach with respect to standard PCA for the analysis of archeometric data are shown through the study of Apulian red figured pottery (fifth–fourth century BC) coming from some of the most relevant archeological sites of ancient Apulia (Monte Sannace (Gioia del Colle), Egnatia (Fasano), Canosa, Altamura, Conversano, and Arpi(Foggia)). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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