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The use of the Geological Strength Index (GSI) to assess rock mass quality in combination with the Hoek-Brown rock mass shear strength criteria has become widely used within the geotechnical fraternity to assess stability for mine pit slopes.

Surface mining of coal can involve extensive footwall slopes parallel to shallow to moderately dipping coal measures strata. Footwall failure mechanisms typically invoke bedding-parallel defects but also require either the existence of flatter structures, which cross-cut bedding, or require break-out through the rock mass to allow failure surfaces to emerge.Permian-aged Baralaba Coal Measures of the Bowen Basin, Queensland, are prospective for coal with extraction by open-pit methods. The Baralaba Coal Measures contains multiple seams within an interburden sequence comprising sandstone, siltstone, mudstone and carbonaceous variations. The coal measures sequence has been deformed into a complex pattern of NW-striking folds which has resulted in bedding dip ranging from 15° to 60°. Bedding has been classified as shallow (10–30°) to moderate (30–60°).Geotechnical investigations conducted to support coal extraction up to depths of 200 m suggest that structural controls strongly influence footwall slope design. For the purpose of footwall slope design, a distinction can be made between deposit areas of relatively simple structure (uniformly dipping bedding on fold limbs) and structurally complex areas (where layer-parallel shortening close to fold hinges has resulted in a system of low-angle thrusts and asymmetrical minor folds).

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This paper presents several approaches utilised by the author in assessing slope designs, inclusive of Probabilities of Failure, in sedimentary strata. A common issue seen by the author in probabilistic analyses is the use of population statistics, which honour variability in point sampling, but do not reflect variability at the larger scale. This then results in overestimates of the Probability of Failure. Issues in assessing the variability in inputs for analyses are discussed. Two case studies are presented with focus and discussion on use of the appropriate variability in the respective analyses. The cases have considered the scale at which the data is collected, and, critically, the analysis methodology which influences the approach in selection of variability. The case studies have utilised a Monte Carlo approach and use of limit equilibrium stability analysis software. Recent trends in analysis methodology (surface response methodology) and emergence of improvements in software (which allow generation of random fields) suggest the field of probabilistic analysis has matured. However, without careful consideration to the key design parameters, probabilistic analysis may simply serve to provide what appears as more sophisticated results, but which offer no additional value in managing risk for a project.