Predicting the biodiversity impacts of global warming implies that we know where and with what magnitude these impacts will be encountered. Amphibians are currently the most threatened vertebrates, mainly due to habitat loss and to emerging infectious diseases. Global warming may further exacerbate their decline in the near future, although the impact might vary geographically. We predicted that subtropical amphibians should be relatively susceptible to warming-induced extinctions because their upper critical thermal limits (CT max ) might be only slightly higher than maximum pond temperatures (T max ). We tested this prediction by measuring CT max and T max for 47 larval amphibian species from two thermally distinct subtropical communities (the warm community of the Gran Chaco and the cool community of Atlantic Forest, northern Argentina), as well as from one European temperate community. Upper thermal tolerances of tadpoles were positively correlated (controlling for phylogeny) with maximum pond temperatures, although the slope was steeper in subtropical than in temperate species. CT max values were lowest in temperate species and highest in the subtropical warm community, which paradoxically, had very low warming tolerance (CT max -T max ) and therefore may be prone to future local extinction from acute thermal stress if rising pond T max soon exceeds their CT max . Canopy-protected subtropical cool species have larger warming tolerance and thus should be less impacted by peak temperatures. Temperate species are relatively secure to warming impacts, except for late breeders with low thermal tolerance, which may be exposed to physiological thermal stress in the coming years.

Anurans breed in a variety of aquatic habitats with contrasting levels of desiccation risk, which may result in selection for faster development during larval stages. Previous studies suggest that species in ephemeral ponds reduce their developmental times to minimize desiccation risks, although it is not clear how variation in desiccation risk affects developmental strategies in different species. Employing a comparative phylogenetic approach including data from published and unpublished studies encompassing 62 observations across 30 species, we tested if species breeding in ephemeral ponds (High risk) develop faster than those from permanent ponds (Low risk) and/or show increased developmental plasticity in response to drying conditions. Our analyses support shorter developmental times in High risk, primarily by decreasing body mass at metamorphosis. Plasticity in developmental times was small and did not differ between groups. However, accelerated development in High risk species generally resulted in reduced sizes at metamorphosis, while some Low risk species were able compensate this effect by increasing mean growth rates. Taken together, our results suggest that plastic responses in species breeding in ephemeral ponds are constrained by a general trade-off between development and growth rates.

In organisms with complex life cycles, environmentally induced plasticity across sequential stages can have important consequences on morphology and life history traits such as developmental and growth rates. However, previous research in amphibians and other ectothermic vertebrates suggests that some morphological traits are generally insensitive to environmental inductions. We conducted a literature survey to examine the allometric responses in relative hind leg length and head shape of post-metamorphic anuran amphibians to induced environmental (temperature, resource level, predation and desiccation risk) variation operating during the larval phase in 44 studies using 19 species. To estimate and compare plastic responses across studies, we employed both an index of plasticity and effect sizes from a meta-analysis. We found contrasting trait responses to different environmental cues. Higher temperatures increased development more than growth rate and induced smaller heads but not overall shifts in hind leg length. In contrast, an increment in resource availability increased growth more than development, with a parallel increase in hind leg length but no change in head shape. Increases in predation risk decreased both development and growth rates and slightly reduced relative hind leg length, but there was no change in head shape. Pond desiccation induced quick development and low growth rates, with no changes in morphology. Across environments, both hind leg and head shape plasticity were positively correlated with growth rate plasticity. However, plasticity of developmental rate was only correlated with head shape plasticity. Overall, these results suggest that environmental trends predicted by global warming projections, such as increasing pond temperature and accelerating pond desiccation, will significantly influence hind leg and head morphology in metamorphic frogs, which may affect performance and, ultimately, fitness.

In ectotherms, variation in life history traits among populations is common and suggests local adaptation. However, geographic variation itself is not a proof for local adaptation, as genetic drift and gene flow may also shape patterns of quantitative variation. We studied local and regional variation in means and phenotypic plasticity of larval life history traits in the common frog Rana temporaria using six populations from central Sweden, breeding in either open-canopy or partially closed-canopy ponds. To separate local adaptation from genetic drift, we compared differentiation in quantitative genetic traits (Q(ST)) obtained from a common garden experiment with differentiation in presumably neutral microsatellite markers (F(ST)). We found that R. temporaria populations differ in means and plasticities of life history traits in different temperatures at local, and in F(ST) at regional scale. Comparisons of differentiation in quantitative traits and in molecular markers suggested that natural selection was responsible for the divergence in growth and development rates as well as in temperature-induced plasticity, indicating local adaptation. However, at low temperature, the role of genetic drift could not be separated from selection. Phenotypes were correlated with forest canopy closure, but not with geographical or genetic distance. These results indicate that local adaptation can evolve in the presence of ongoing gene flow among the populations, and that natural selection is strong in this system.

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