Predicting the binding affinity of major histocompatibility complex I (MHC I) proteins and their peptide ligands is important for vaccine design. We introduce an open-source package for MHC I binding prediction, MHCflurry. The software implements allele-specific neural networks that use a novel architecture and peptide encoding scheme. When trained on affinity measurements, MHCflurry outperformed the standard predictors NetMHC 4.0 and NetMHCpan 3.0 overall and particularly on non-9-mer peptides in a benchmark of ligands identified by mass spectrometry. The released predictor, MHCflurry 1.2.0, uses mass spectrometry datasets for model selection and showed competitive accuracy with standard tools, including the recently released NetMHCpan 4.0, on a small benchmark of affinity measurements. MHCflurry's prediction speed exceeded 7,000 predictions per second, 396 times faster than NetMHCpan 4.0. MHCflurry is freely available to use, retrain, or extend, includes Python library and command line interfaces, may be installed using package managers, and applies software development best practices.

Highlights d New pan-allele MHC class I binding predictor d Antigen processing predictor trained on mass spectrometryidentified MHC ligands d Combined model outperforms existing methods d Open source Python package with command line and library interfaces

Highlights d Affinity-tagging protocol enables proteomic profiling of individual HLA-II alleles d Even in ''hot'' tumors, professional APCs-not cancer cellsdrive HLA-II expression d Cellular localization influences which phagocytosed cancer proteins get presented d Machine-learning models for binding and processing improve HLA-II prediction

Immune checkpoint inhibitors are promising treatments for patients with a variety of malignancies. Toward understanding the determinants of response to immune checkpoint inhibitors, it was previously demonstrated that the presence of somatic mutations is associated with benefit from checkpoint inhibition. A hypothesis was posited that neoantigen homology to pathogens may in part explain the link between somatic mutations and response. To further examine this hypothesis, we reanalyzed cancer exome data obtained from our previously published study of 64 melanoma patients treated with CTLA-4 blockade and a new dataset of RNA-Seq data from 24 of these patients. We found that the ability to accurately predict patient benefit did not increase as the analysis narrowed from somatic mutation burden, to inclusion of only those mutations predicted to be MHC Class I neoantigens, to only including those neoantigens that were expressed or that had homology to pathogens. The only association between somatic mutation burden and response was found when examining samples obtained prior to treatment. Neoantigen and expressed neoantigen burden were also associated with response, but neither is more predictive than somatic mutation burden. Neither the previously-described tetrapeptide signature, nor an updated method to evaluate neoepitope homology to pathogens, were more predictive than mutation burden.

Predictions of patient outcomes after a given therapy are fundamental to medical practice. We employ a machine learning approach towards predicting the outcomes after stereotactic radiosurgery for cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs). Using three prospective databases, a machine learning approach of feature engineering and model optimization was implemented to create the most accurate predictor of AVM outcomes. Existing prognostic systems were scored for purposes of comparison. The final predictor was secondarily validated on an independent site’s dataset not utilized for initial construction. Out of 1,810 patients, 1,674 to 1,291 patients depending upon time threshold, with 23 features were included for analysis and divided into training and validation sets. The best predictor had an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71 compared to existing clinical systems of 0.63 across all time points. On the heldout dataset, the predictor had an accuracy of around 0.74 at across all time thresholds with a specificity and sensitivity of 62% and 85% respectively. This machine learning approach was able to provide the best possible predictions of AVM radiosurgery outcomes of any method to date, identify a novel radiobiological feature (3D surface dose), and demonstrate a paradigm for further development of prognostic tools in medical care.