Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3–5, little is known about how these vary across Earth’s largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both $$\varPsi $$ Ψ 50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth–mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

Strong El Niño events alter tropical climates and may lead to a negative carbon balance in tropical forests and consequently a disruption to the global carbon cycle. The complexity of tropical forests and the lack of data from these regions hamper the assessment of the spatial distribution of El Niño impacts on these ecosystems. Typically, maps of climate anomaly are used to detect areas of greater risk, ignoring baseline climate conditions and forest cover. Here, we integrated climate anomalies from the 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016 El Niño events with baseline climate and forest edge extent, using a risk assessment approach to hypothetically assess the spatial and temporal distributions of El Niño risk over tropical forests under several risk scenarios. The drivers of risk varied temporally and spatially. Overall, the relative risk of El Niño has been increasing driven mainly by intensified forest fragmentation that has led to a greater chance of fire ignition and increased mean annual air temperatures. We identified areas of repeated high risk, where conservation efforts and fire control measures should be focused to avoid future forest degradation and negative impacts on the carbon cycle.

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Key message The rate of vessel tapering is highly conserved across a precipitation gradient in tropical trees, pointing to a limit on tree height determined by a maximum basal vessel diameter. Maximum tree height in the tropics decreases strongly with decreasing precipitation. The role of hydraulic architecture in controlling this variation in tree height remains unclear. The widening of conducting xylem vessels from the apex to the base of trees, also known as tapering, is important for maintaining the hydraulic conductivity along the tree stem. If in contrast vessel diameter were constant, then resistance would increase with path length constraining flow rates as tree height increases. Whilst previous research has shown that vessel diameter scales with tree height at a similar rate (similar power law exponent) across biomes and taxa, knowledge on these relationships across precipitation gradients within a single species is incomplete, especially for the tropics. Here we report how vessel density and diameter at the tree base differ for two tropical Cedrela species across four sites varying in precipitation from 1014 to 2585 mm year−1. We find that maximum tree height decreases with decreasing precipitation across sites from 42 to 13 m. Despite the strong differences between sites in maximum tree height and water availability, tapering is indeed remarkably conserved and close to published scaling with height based on multi-species analyses. Thus, for a given tree height, basal vessel diameter does not vary between sites, whilst the maximum basal vessel size is two times smaller at the drier site (with the shortest trees) compared to the wettest site (with the tallest trees). This suggests a possible limitation of tree height determined by a maximum basal vessel diameter that can be sustained, given increasing embolism risk with increasing dryness. Our results show no hydraulic adaptation across this wetness gradient and reveal a clear relationship between maximum tree height and maximum basal vessel size.