Background Large observational clinical datasets are becoming increasingly available for mining associations between various disease traits and administered therapy. These datasets can be considered as representations of the landscape of all possible disease conditions, in which a concrete disease state develops through stereotypical routes, characterized by “points of no return" and “final states" (such as lethal or recovery states). Extracting this information directly from the data remains challenging, especially in the case of synchronic (with a short-term follow-up) observations. Results Here we suggest a semi-supervised methodology for the analysis of large clinical datasets, characterized by mixed data types and missing values, through modeling the geometrical data structure as a bouquet of bifurcating clinical trajectories. The methodology is based on application of elastic principal graphs, which can address simultaneously the tasks of dimensionality reduction, data visualization, clustering, feature selection, and quantifying the geodesic distances (pseudo-time) in partially ordered sequences of observations. The methodology allows a patient to be positioned on a particular clinical trajectory (pathological scenario) and the degree of progression along it to be characterized with a qualitative estimate of the uncertainty of the prognosis. We developed a tool ClinTrajan for clinical trajectory analysis implemented in the Python programming language. We test the methodology in 2 large publicly available datasets: myocardial infarction complications and readmission of diabetic patients data. Conclusions Our pseudo-time quantification-based approach makes it possible to apply the methods developed for dynamical disease phenotyping and illness trajectory analysis (diachronic data analysis) to synchronic observational data.

Cell cycle is a biological process underlying the existence and propagation of life in time and space. It has been an object for mathematical modeling for long, with several alternative mechanistic modeling principles suggested, describing in more or less details the known molecular mechanisms. Recently, cell cycle has been investigated at single cell level in snapshots of unsynchronized cell populations, exploiting the new methods for transcriptomic and proteomic molecular profiling. This raises a need for simplified semi-phenomenological cell cycle models, in order to formalize the processes underlying the cell cycle, at a higher abstracted level. Here we suggest a modeling framework, recapitulating the most important properties of the cell cycle as a limit trajectory of a dynamical process characterized by several internal states with switches between them. In the simplest form, this leads to a limit cycle trajectory, composed by linear segments in logarithmic coordinates describing some extensive (depending on system size) cell properties. We prove a theorem connecting the effective embedding dimensionality of the cell cycle trajectory with the number of its linear segments. We also develop a simplified kinetic model with piecewise-constant kinetic rates describing the dynamics of lumps of genes involved in S-phase and G2/M phases. We show how the developed cell cycle models can be applied to analyze the available single cell datasets and simulate certain properties of the observed cell cycle trajectories. Based on our model, we can predict with good accuracy the cell line doubling time from the length of cell cycle trajectory.