Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease in developed countries, and accumulating evidence suggests it as the hepatic manifestation of the metabolic syndrome (MS). Although the published prevalence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is low in NAFLD/NASH patients, most of these data have been derived from areas endemic for viral hepatitis. We recruited 162 adults with HCC between February 2007 and March 2008, investigated the underlying etiologies and determined the prevalence of the MS and related features within each group. Patients with NAFLD/NASH‐associated HCC exhibited a higher prevalence of metabolic features (Type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, coronary artery disease) compared to non‐NAFLD/NASH‐HCC. Intriguingly, a significant number (41.7%; p < 0.005) of individuals with NAFLD/NASH‐HCC had no evidence of cirrhosis. Patients with alcohol‐induced liver disease also displayed many features (14/19, 73.7%) of the MS, although, in contrast to NAFLD/NASH‐HCC, alcohol‐associated HCC was highly associated with cirrhosis (95.0%; p = 0.064). NAFLD/NASH as the hepatic entity of the MS may itself pose a risk factor for HCC, even in the absence of cirrhosis. The MS may also promote development of HCC among those with alcoholic liver disease. Increased awareness of liver manifestations in the MS may instigate early interventions against developing HCC.

We validated the performance of the GALAD and BALAD-2 models for the diagnosis of HCC and predicting patient survival, respectively (based on levels of the serum markers AFP, AFP-L3, and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin), in an international cohort of almost 7000 patients. These systems might be used in HCC surveillance and determination of patient prognosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prevalence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing. However, strategies for detection of early-stage HCC in patients with NASH have limitations. We assessed the ability of the GALAD score, which determines risk of HCC based on patient sex; age; and serum levels of a-fetoprotein (AFP), AFP isoform L3 (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP), to detect HCC in patients with NASH. METHODS: We performed a case-control study of 125 patients with HCC (20% within Milan Criteria) and 231 patients without HCC (NASH controls) from 8 centers in Germany. We compared the performance of serum AFP, AFP-L3, or DCP vs GALAD score to identify patients with HCC using receiver operating characteristic curves and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) analyses. We also analyzed data from 389 patients with NASH under surveillance for HCC in Japan, followed for a median of 167 months. During the 5-year screening period, 26 patients developed HCC. To compensate for irregular intervals of data points, we performed locally weighted scatterplot smoothing, linear regression, and a non-linear curve fit to assess development of GALAD before HCC development. RESULTS: The GALAD score identified patients with any stage HCC with an AUC of 0.96significantly greater than values for serum levels of AFP (AUC, 0.88), AFP-L3 (AUC, 0.86) or DCP (AUC, 0.87).