Mathematical models of scientific data can be formally compared using Bayesian model evidence. Previous applications in the biological sciences have mainly focussed on model selection in which one first selects the model with the highest evidence and then makes inferences based on the parameters of that model. This “best model” approach is very useful but can become brittle if there are a large number of models to compare, and if different subjects use different models. To overcome this shortcoming we propose the combination of two further approaches: (i) family level inference and (ii) Bayesian model averaging within families. Family level inference removes uncertainty about aspects of model structure other than the characteristic of interest. For example: What are the inputs to the system? Is processing serial or parallel? Is it linear or nonlinear? Is it mediated by a single, crucial connection? We apply Bayesian model averaging within families to provide inferences about parameters that are independent of further assumptions about model structure. We illustrate the methods using Dynamic Causal Models of brain imaging data.

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In this paper, we propose a new automated procedure for lesion identification from single images based on the detection of outlier voxels. We demonstrate the utility of this procedure using artificial and real lesions. The scheme rests on two innovations: First, we augment the generative model used for combined segmentation and normalization of images, with an empirical prior for an atypical tissue class, which can be optimised iteratively. Second, we adopt a fuzzy clustering procedure to identify outlier voxels in normalised gray and white matter segments. These two advances suppress misclassification of voxels and restrict lesion identification to gray/white matter lesions respectively. Our analyses show a high sensitivity for detecting and delineating brain lesions with different sizes, locations, and textures. Our approach has important implications for the generation of lesion overlap maps of a given population and the assessment of lesion-deficit mappings. From a clinical perspective, our method should help to compute the total volume of lesion or to trace precisely lesion boundaries that might be pertinent for surgical or diagnostic purposes.