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Modern methods of simulating molecular systems are based on the mathematical theory of Markov operators with a focus on autonomous equilibrated systems. However, non‐autonomous physical systems or non‐autonomous simulation processes are becoming more and more important. A representation of non‐autonomous Markov jump processes is presented as autonomous Markov chains on space‐time. Augmenting the spatial information of the embedded Markov chain by the temporal information of the associated jump times, the so‐called augmented jump chain is derived. The augmented jump chain inherits the sparseness of the infinitesimal generator of the original process and therefore provides a useful tool for studying time‐dependent dynamics even in high dimensions. Furthermore, possible generalizations and applications to the computation of committor functions and coherent sets in the non‐autonomous setting are discussed. After deriving the theoretical foundations, the concepts with a proof‐of‐concept Galerkin discretization of the transfer operator of the augmented jump chain applied to simple examples are illustrated.

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the nonparametric case, the maximum likelihood estimate is known to overfit the data, an issue that is commonly tackled by regularization. However, the majority of regularizations are ad hoc choices which lack invariance under reparametrization of the model and result in inconsistent estimates for equivalent models. We introduce a nonparametric, transformation-invariant estimator for the prior distribution. Being defined in terms of the missing information similar to the reference prior, it can be seen as an extension of the latter to the data-driven setting. This implies a natural interpretation as a trade-off between choosing the least informative prior and incorporating the information provided by the data, a symbiosis between the objective and empirical Bayes methodologies.

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The picture shows a transmembrane receptor located at the surface of a cell. It is the µ‐opioid receptor, which is responsible for suppressing pain sensations. It is important to know how probable it is that a pain relieve drug (pink, fentanyl) will bind to and activate the receptor. The augmented jump chain described in article 2000274 by Alexander Sikorski, Marcus Weber, and Christof Schütte offers a possible mathematical framework for answering this question.