We offer a detailed empirical investigation of the European sovereign debt crisis based on the theoretical model by Arghyrou and Tsoukalas (2010). We find evidence of a marked shift in market pricing behaviour from a 'convergence-trade' model before August 2007 to one driven by macro-fundamentals and international risk thereafter. The majority of EMU countries have experienced contagion from Greece. There is no evidence of significant speculation effects originating from CDS markets. Finally, the escalation of the Greek debt crisis since November 2009 is confirmed as the result of an unfavourable shift in country specific market expectations. Our findings highlight the necessity of structural, competitiveness-inducing reforms in periphery EMU countries and institutional reforms at the EMU level enhancing intra-EMU economic monitoring and policy co-ordination.JEL classification: E43, E44, F30, G01, G12

This paper examines the relationship between inflation-uncertainty and the impact of inflation targeting using British data over the period 1972-2002. Uncertainty is proxied using the estimated conditional volatility from symmetric, asymmetric, and component GARCH-M models of inflation. The results indicate a positive relationship between past inflation and current uncertainty. We control for the indirect effect of lower average inflation throughout the last decade of inflation targeting and find that the adoption of an explicit target eliminates inflation persistence and reduces long-run uncertainty. Monetary authorities of implicit targeting countries should consider the extra benefits associated with formal targets.

We use a panel of euro area countries to assess the determinants of long-term sovereign bond yield spreads over the period 1999.01-2010.12. We find that, unlike the period preceding the global financial crisis, European government bond yield spreads are wellexplained by macro-and fiscal fundamentals over the crisis period. We also find that the menu of macro and fiscal risks priced by markets has been significantly enriched since March 2009, including the risk of the crisis' transmission among EMU member states, international risk and liquidity risk. Finally, we find that sovereign credit ratings are statistically significant in explaining spreads, yet compared to macro-and fiscal fundamentals their role is limited. JEL: C23, E62, H50.

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