This paper is concerned with the reliable prediction of electricity demands using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The need for electricity demand prediction is fundamental and vital for power resource planning and monitoring. A dataset of electricity demands covering the period of 2003 to 2018 was collected from the Electricity Distribution Company of Ghana, covering three urban areas namely Mallam, Achimota, and Ga East, all in Ghana. The dataset was divided into two parts: one part covering a period of 0 to 500 hours was used for training of the ANFIS algorithm while the second part was used for validation. Three scenarios were considered for the simulation exercise that was done with the MATLAB software. Scenario one considered four inputs sampled data, scenario two considered an additional input making it 5, and scenario 3 was similar to scenario 1 with the exception of the number of membership functions that increased from 2 to 3. The performance of the ANFIS algorithm was assessed by comparing its predictions with other three forecast models namely Support Vector Regression (SVR), Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM), and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Findings revealed that the ANFIS algorithm can perform the prediction accurately, the ANFIS algorithm converges faster with an increase in the data used for training, and increasing the membership function resulted in overfitting of data which adversely affected the RMSE values. Comparison of the ANFIS results to other previously used methods of predicting electricity demands including SVR, LS-SVM, and ARIMA revealed that there is merit to the potentials of the ANFIS algorithm for improved predictive accuracy while relying on a quality data for training and reliable setting of tuning parameters.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.