This article examines the responsiveness of changes in the unemployment rate to changes in output for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) using aggregate and disaggregated data from 1991 to 2018. We also split the entire sample period into two subsamples (from 1991 to 2008 and 2009 to 2018) to see the responsiveness of changes in the unemployment rate to changes in the GDP in pre and post global financial crisis period of 2007–2008. Three different econometric methods were employed for conducting the analysis. Results obtained from aggregated and disaggregated data for the entire sample and two subsamples confirm the validity of the Okun law for BRICS. The postcrisis period Okun’s law estimates are larger than those from the full sample and precrisis period. Disaggregated data results show private consumption is the main determinant of the unemployment rate and its estimate is negative and significant. Along with consumption expenditures, other variables that have relevancy in determining changes in the unemployment rate are government expenditures, exports, and imports. Based on aggregated and disaggregated data results, it is recommended that the relevant authorities must focus sustainable economic growth for reducing unemployment rate in the country. Particularly, they must incentivize consumption and government expenditures, boost exports, and curtail imports for reducing the unemployment rate.
This paper aims at evaluating the effectiveness of central bank of Pakistan’s sterilization policy to neutralize the impact of capital movements on domestic monetary conditions. We also estimate how the sterilization efforts are frustrated/offset by fresh capital inflows. Sterilization coefficient and offset coefficients are estimated through Monetary Policy Reaction Function and Capital Flow Equation respectively. To check robustness of our results, we apply three different econometric techniques including Vector Error Correction Method, Two Staged Least Squares and Generalized Method of Moments. Using monthly data, we use one full sample: from 1982M1 to 2018M12 and two subsamples: i.e. from 1982M1 to 2001M09 and from 2001M10 to 2018M12. The results from the two equations from all specifications show that sterilization coefficients are relatively smaller than the offset coefficients implying that it is difficult for Pakistan to sterilize the impact of foreign capital inflows on domestic money base. Larger offset coefficients, on the other hand, particularly for the second subsample, indicate that Pakistan cannot conduct independent monetary policy under the free float exchange rate regime adopted in 2000. Our results from both equations are robust to all specifications and for all samples and subsamples. Major implication of our finding is that Pakistan cannot conduct independent monetary policy in after resorting to free float exchange rate regime.
This paper presents outcomes of a study that was conducted to assess myriad problems faced by old widows in rural areas of second largest province of Pakistan, Sindh. As already, there is inadequate data on the social, economic and living arrangements of aged widows of Rural Sindh. Through this research survey, gap of information on social, economic, and living arrangements of Sindhi rural aged widows is filled by primary survey data. The sample of 384 Respondents of age 60 and above was chosen by infinite population formula and respondents for collecting data were selected by using convenience sampling technique from the six rural districts of Sindh. Descriptive statistics were applied to analyze data. The results suggest that there is strong preference of son and who is considered as old age protection for aged widows, and even today residing with son is regarded as popular cultural practice in Rural Sindh. The high number of aged widows was economically dependent on their sons. Absence of old age pension, no parallel remuneration and lack of skills in aged widows are some factors which are strongly influencing and creating very severe socio-economic consequences for widows in later age. Also, because of urbanization, the extended family culture is transforming to nuclear family drastically and ultimately, it is affecting largely on the living arrangements of aged widows.
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