We revisit a significant research topic on exchange rate behavior by restating the test procedures with an appropriate econometric methodology to re-examine three aspects. (i) Does the inflation (price) factor affect nominal exchange rate? (ii) Do relative interest rates affect a country's exchange rate? (iii) Do the price and interest rate effects hold if controls for non-parity factors are embedded in tests? The quarterly data series for this study are taken over 55 years. The traditional parity condition model with price and interest rate as criterion variables is extended to take into account recently-verified non-parity factors, namely trade, productivity and foreign reserves. The results affirm that both parity factors and also the non-parity factors significantly affect the exchange rates of Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. In our view, these findings relating to four free-floating currencies help extend our knowledge on how currency behavior is consistent with parity and non-parity theorems using a relevant methodological approach in this study.
Bond yields of Treasury and corporate bonds are observed in a listed exchange. This article reports the findings on the market yield behaviour of two types of debt securities in the same exchange, the sharia-compliant sukuk bonds and the normal conventional bonds. There are 17 exchanges where sukuk bonds are traded, and the outstanding value is estimated at US$ 1,200 billion. The average yields of sukuk Treasury bonds are significantly higher (premium) than that of conventional Treasury bonds. On the other hand, investors in the sukuk corporate bonds receive slightly lower returns (discount) of about 25 basis points in the case of long-term sukuk bonds. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to verify these differences using appropriate advanced econometric methods. These results have far-reaching implications for the market practices as well as for teaching of bond pricing behaviour since this new form of debt markets is growing at about 17 per cent a year. JEL Classification: F23, F31, G12
Purpose
This paper aims to report practice-relevant anomalous investment yield behavior of two types of bonds – Type A, the mainstream bond, and Type B, which is Sukuk – both having similar cash-flow-relevant characteristics.
Design/methodology/approach
Bond valuation theory suggests that yields to investors of similarly rated bonds ought to be same. The authors collected time-series data on A and B bonds, all being coupon-paying bonds with similar rating and similar tenor as two matched samples traded in a bond exchange. To ensure the results are extended to different bond sectors, the data set was separated into treasury bonds as risk-free and corporate bonds as risky ones. The data set was further sub-divided into short-, medium- and long-tenor bonds. As the data straddle the Global Financial Crisis period, the authors use appropriate econometric method to control the possible effect from the crisis.
Findings
The average and median yields on Type A bond are significantly different from those of Type B. The test results show significant and systematic differences: treasury bonds of Type A returns yield lower than treasury bonds of Type B; the yields of corporate mainstream bonds (A) are higher than the yields of Sukuk (B). The authors observe these findings constitute a puzzle, being anomalous to theory.
Originality/value
This paper is original in that it is documenting significant differences in pricing of equivalent bonds. This has both theory and practice implications for fixed-income security market practices. The evidence is very strong to suggest that the identical types of bonds may have missing variable that contributes to the difference. Therefore, further research to identify the missing variable is necessary.
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