A semiempirical model, based in the logistic map, has been succesfully applied to forecast important quantities along the several phases of the outbreak of the covid-19 for different countries. This paper shows how the model was calibrated and applied to perform predictions of people needing to be hospitalized, needs of ventilators, or the number of deaths which would be produced. It is shown specifically the results obtained in the case of Spain, showing a prediction of diagnosed infected and deaths which will be observed after the ease of the total lockdown produced the 13 th of March. Is also shown how this model can provide an insight of what the level of infection in the different regions of Spain is forecasted.The model predicts for Spain for the end of May more than 400,000 diagnosed infected cases, number which will be probably higher due to the change in the possibilities of performing massive number of tests to the general population. The number of forecasted deaths for that date is 46,000± 15,000.
-The radionuclide transport model THREETOX was extended to include the multi-fractional sediments and two-step kinetics. The model was implemented into the decision support system JRODOS where forecasts of marine currents from the operational ocean models were used to predict dispersion of radionuclides. The results of simulation were compared with measurements for the Fukushima-Daiichi case study. The THREETOX model implemented into the JRODOS was applied to the stress test scenario for the ASCÓ nuclear power plant (Spain).
Since the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident, decision support systems (DSS) for supporting response of the decision makers in emergencies have been developed and refined. Data available from real accidents are used to validate these systems, thus demonstrating their real capabilities and finally to improve them. This article presents the findings of the simulation exercises using JRODOS DSS performed in Spain after the first days of the accident in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. The investigation was carried out in two phases. The first phase is considered the early phase of the accident when few details of the real emissions are known (operational modeling). The second phase demonstrates how real measurements could be used (reconstructive modeling) to improve model predictions. Only major releases to the atmosphere, occurring during the first two weeks, were taken into account. Validation of the model was performed by direct comparison of the modeled results with real measurements.
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