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To determine which preoperative factors might affect the development of cardiac complications after major noncardiac operations, we prospectively studied 1001 patients over 40 years of age. By multivariate discriminant analysis, we identified nine independent significant correlates of life-threatening and fatal cardiac complications: preoperative third heart sound or jugular venous distention; myocardial infarction in the preceding six months; more than five premature ventricular contractions per minute documented at any time before operation; rhythm other than sinus or presence of premature atrial contractions on preoperative electrocardiogram; age over 70 years; intraperitoneal, intrathoracic or aortic operation; emergency operation; important valvular aortic stenosis; and poor general medical condition. Patients could be separated into four classes of significantly different risk. Ten of the 19 postoperative cardiac fatalities occurred in the 18 patients at highest risk. If validated by prospective application, the multifactorial index may allow preoperative estimation of cardiac risk independent of direct surgical risk.

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Primary care is essential to the effective and efficient functioning of health care delivery systems, yet there is an impending crisis in the field due in part to a dysfunctional payment system. We present a fundamentally new model of payment for primary care, replacing encounter-based imbursement with comprehensive payment for comprehensive care. Unlike former iterations of primary care capitation (which simply bundled inadequate fee-for-service payments), our comprehensive payment model represents new investment in adult primary care, with substantial increases in payment over current levels. The comprehensive payment is directed to practices to include support for the modern systems and teams essential to the delivery of comprehensive, coordinated care. Income to primary physicians is increased commensurate with the high level of responsibility expected. To ensure optimal allocation of resources and the rewarding of desired outcomes, the comprehensive payment is needs/risk-adjusted and performance-based. Our model establishes a new social contract with the primary care community, substantially increasing payment in return for achieving important societal health system goals, including improved accessibility, quality, safety, and efficiency. Attainment of these goals should help offset and justify the costs of the investment. Field tests of this and other new models of payment for primary care are urgently needed.