The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of local macroeconomic indicators and global risk factors on the participation index in the Turkish stock market from May 2011 to April 2021. Using the quantile regression approach, we detect the impact of local macroeconomic indicators and global risk factors across different market conditions: bull, bear, and normal. The empirical results demonstrate that, among local macroeconomic indicators, monetary policy-related indicators, Consumer Price Index (CPI)(Slope of Government Bond [SGB]), merely influence participation 30 index (KAT30) return in bearish market (bullish market); however, credit default swap negatively affects KAT30 return across all quantiles. When it comes to global risk factors, results show that KAT30 return is negatively affected by the implied volatility index across all quantiles except Q0.75 and Q0.95. This means that the implied volatility index impact on KAT30 return is stronger during the bearish market. Yet, Oil Volatility Index (OVX) and Morgan Stanley Country Index (MSCI) positively impact the index return across upper quantiles.
In this study, we analyze the effect of selected local and global factors on Azerbaijan's real exchange rate during the period of January 2013 to April 2021, using the quantile regression method that takes asymmetry into account. The results showed that all variables generally influence the real exchange rate at lower quantiles. Specifically, an increase in OILP and CPI leads to a decrease in RER at Q1-Q5 and Q1-Q2, respectively. Furthermore, an increase in RESV and GPR leads to a decrease in RER at Q1-Q2 and Q1, respectively. The effect of the coefficients also decreases as the quantiles increase.
The purpose of this paper is to understand determinants of liquidity buffers in the GCC’s Islamic banks. We apply the model of Bonner et al. (2005) on balanced panel data, bank specific data and annual balance sheet data for all reporting banks. The data cover a period of 8 years from 2004 until 2011 for 24 Islamic banks from GCC region that includes mainly Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait. Results show that liquidity buffers negatively related to the size of the bank, the capitalization is negatively related to liquidity buffers in Islamic banks in the GCC region and the ratio of deposits is negatively related to liquid assets holding in Islamic banks, but not statistically significant. In addition, we found a positive relationship between the profitability and liquidity buffers in Islamic banks of the GCC region. Finally, we found a different result when it comes to macroeconomic variables. First we noticed a negative impact of the inflation on liquidity buffers and second, a positive significant relationship between GDP real growth and liquidity buffers in Islamic banks in the GCC region. Our findings can serve as a tool for policy makers in the GCC region to adopt sounder strategies of liquidity management.
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