Individuals who belong to the same family or the same population are related because of their shared ancestry. Population and quantitative genetics theory is built with parameters that describe relatedness, and the estimation of these parameters from genetic markers enables progress in fields as disparate as plant breeding, human disease gene mapping and forensic science. The large number of multiallelic microsatellite loci and biallelic SNPs that are now available have markedly increased the precision with which relationships can be estimated, although they have also revealed unexpected levels of genomic heterogeneity of relationship measures.
This letter comments on the report "Forensic science in criminal courts: Ensuring scientific validity of feature-comparison methods" recently released by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). The report advocates a procedure for evaluation of forensic evidence that is a two-stage procedure in which the first stage is "match"/"non-match" and the second stage is empirical assessment of sensitivity (correct acceptance) and false alarm (false acceptance) rates. Almost always, quantitative data from feature-comparison methods are continuously-valued and have within-source variability. We explain why a two-stage procedure is not appropriate for this type of data, and recommend use of statistical procedures which are appropriate.
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