A combination of methods originating from non-stationary timeseries analysis is applied to two datasets of near surface turbulence in order to gain insights on the non-stationary enhancement mechanism of intermittent turbulence in the stable atmospheric boundary layer (SBL). We identify regimes of SBL turbulence for which the range of timescales of turbulence and submeso motions, and hence their scale separation (or lack of separation) differs. Ubiquitous flow structures, or events, are extracted from the turbulence data in each flow regime. We relate flow regimes characterised by very stable stratification but different scales activity to a signature of flow structures thought to be submeso motions.

We study the hydrodynamic equilibrium properties of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer from measurements obtained in the Snow-Horizontal Array Turbulence Study (SnoHATS) campaign at the Plaine Morte Glacier in the Swiss Alps. Our approach is based on a combination of dynamical systems techniques and statistical analysis. The main idea is to measure the deviations from the behavior expected by a turbulent observable when it is close to a transition between different metastable states. We first assess the performance of our method on the Lorenz attractor, then on a turbulent flow. The results show that the method recognizes subtle differences among different stable boundary layers turbulence regimes and may be used to help characterise their transitions.

Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and quiescent, quasi-laminar states. Such rapid transitions are observed in Polar regions or at night when the atmospheric boundary layer is stably stratified, and they have important consequences in the strength of mixing with the higher levels of the atmosphere. To analyze the stable boundary layer, many approaches rely on the identification of regimes that are commonly denoted as weakly and very stable regimes. Detecting transitions between the regimes is crucial for modeling purposes. In this work a combination of methods from dynamical systems and statistical modeling is applied to study these regime transitions and to develop an early-warning signal that can be applied to non-stationary field data. The presented metric aims at detecting nearing transitions by statistically quantifying the deviation from the dynamics expected when the system is close to a stable equilibrium. An idealized stochastic model of near-surface inversions is used to evaluate the potential of the metric as an indicator of regime transitions. In this stochastic system, small-scale perturbations can be amplified due to the nonlinearity, resulting in transitions between two possible equilibria of the temperature inversion. The simulations show such noise-induced regime transitions, successfully identified by the indicator. The indicator is further applied to time series data from nocturnal and Polar meteorological measurements.

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Abstract. Numerical weather prediction and climate models encounter challenges in accurately representing flow regimes in the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer and the transitions between them, leading to an inadequate depiction of regime occupation statistics. As a consequence, existing models exhibit significant biases in near-surface temperatures at high latitudes. To explore inherent uncertainties in modeling regime transitions, the response of the near-surface temperature inversion to transient small-scale phenomena is analyzed based on a stochastic modeling approach. A sensitivity analysis is conducted by augmenting a conceptual model for near-surface temperature inversions with randomizations that account for different types of model uncertainty. The stochastic conceptual model serves as a tool to systematically investigate what types of unsteady flow features, and in what contexts, may trigger abrupt transitions in the mean boundary layer state. The findings show that the incorporation of enhanced mixing, a common practice in numerical weather prediction models, blurs the two regime characteristic of the stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer. Simulating intermittent turbulence is shown to provide a potential workaround for this issue. Including key uncertainty in models could lead to a better statistical representation of the regimes in long-term climate simulation. This would help to improve our understanding and the forecasting of climate change especially in high-latitude regions.