ABSTRACT:The meteorological and oceanographic conditions are crucial for the successful launch of aerospace vehicles. However, the decision-making process using environmental information is a complex problem, since it depends on a constant review of current and future weather conditions. To understand this process in the Brazilian Space Program (BSP) context, this paper aims to be the first attempt to map out the systemic view of applied meteorology for the launch missions of aerospace vehicles. Various Brazilian stakeholders were interviewed and their perspectives were analyzed by using a problem structuring method known as Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA). With this approach, it was possible to identify different concepts in each group of respondents regarding the current situation of Aerospace Meteorology. One particularly relevant result was identified: weather forecast is not merely a tool to be used to modify the chronology of a mission and to fully provide support in decision-making during the rocket launches in Brazil. Furthermore, the paper shows that the Aerospace Meteorology needs to improve technical processes and to develop a weather decision support system with decisionmakers' preferences regarding the uncertainty in weather forecasts. SODA has shown to be a support tool to understand the real situation of meteorology for the launch of aerospace vehicles and appropriate to aid in future planning in the BSP.

Decision‐making under weather uncertainty is a challenge in several fields. When the decision process involves many stakeholders, frequently with different interpretations of the meteorological information, the process is even more complex. This work provides a quantitative decision model with a new index (called the weather decision index, WDI) to support the stakeholders in making real‐world choices according to their preferences regarding the uncertainty of weather information. The integrated model combines several methods such as problem structuring, multi‐criteria analysis, scenario planning and probabilistic weather forecast techniques. As a demonstration, the model was applied in the sounding rocket launch mission in the Brazilian Space Programme. The WDI captured stakeholders' behaviour related to three meteorological information attributes (probability, lead‐time and variables) and modelled the most important judgements of the decision maker; low probability or an extended lead‐time depreciates the meteorological information, and weather variables are not considered in the decisions, even with forecasts of extreme events. Modelling with the WDI brings a new perspective in weather‐related decision problems. The choice of alternatives no longer depends on a necessarily simplified optimization analysis, but rather on the decision maker's preferences about the possibly nonlinear trade‐offs between forecast reliability and lead‐time. The findings also increase understanding of the forecast decision maker's preferences and how to improve weather risk communication. The WDI provides a starting point for several applications, including early warning systems or climate change adaptation, for which reliable uncertainty estimates are accessible.

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Acontecimentos recentes, como o ataque da Maratona de Boston, enfatizam como é importante o planejamento contra a ocorrência de atividades terroristas durante grandes eventos. Este artigo fornece uma breve revisão das abordagens que têm sido tradicionalmente utilizadas na gestão do risco de atentados terroristas e as implicações para os próximos eventos esportivos no Brasil.

A decision on a military strategic environment, such as the selection of a new naval base, is a complex process and involves various criteria. In this context, few studies are available on the problems of military-naval transport decisions. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to present a maritime transport case study using a multi-methodology framework in a process of strategic decision making in logistics. Through a review of the literature, normative documents from the Brazilian armed forces, and interviews with military officers, criteria and preferences were identified and a hierarchical structure was constructed for a case study in the Brazilian Navy-the location of the second Fleet Headquarters. The results indicated that São Marcos Bay, in Maranhão State, was the best location among the alternatives. The multi-criteria approach was shown to be a valuable tool in assisting the decision making process and to understand the trade-offs between strategic and operational criteria in a transport decision.Resumo: Decisões em um ambiente estratégico-militar, como a seleção de uma nova base naval, são processos complexos e que envolvem diversos critérios. Neste contexto, poucos estudos estão disponíveis sobre o problema de tomada decisão em transporte militar-naval. Portanto, o objetivo deste artigo é apresentar um estudo de caso utilizando um método multicritério em um processo de tomada de decisão estratégico-militar em logística. Por meio da revisão da literatura, de documentos normativos das Forças Armadas e de entrevistas com militares, foram identificados os critérios, as preferências e foi construída a estrutura hierárquica para um caso real da Marinha do Brasil, na localização da segunda sede da Esquadra na costa Norte e Nordeste brasileira. O resultado indicou que a Baía de São Marcos, no Maranhão, é a melhor localização entre as alternativas consideradas. O método multicritério demostrou ser uma ferramenta válida para auxiliar no processo decisório e para entender as compensações entre os critérios estratégicos e operacionais em uma decisão de transporte.Palavras-chave: seleção de portos; transporte marítimo; análise de decisão; MCDA; marinha do brasil.