Suppose {X k } k∈Z is a sequence of bounded independent random matrices with common dimension d × d and common expectation E [X k ] = X. Under these general assumptions, the normalized random matrix productconverges to Z n → e X as n → ∞. Normalized random matrix products of this form arise naturally in stochastic iterative algorithms, such as Oja's algorithm for streaming Principal Component Analysis. Here, we derive nonasymptotic concentration inequalities for such random matrix products. In particular, we show that the spectral norm error satisfies Z n − e X = O((log(n)) 2 log(d/δ)/ √ n) with probability exceeding 1−δ. This rate is sharp in n, d, and δ, up to possibly the log(n) and log(d) factors. The proof relies on two key points of theory: the Matrix Bernstein inequality concerning the concentration of sums of random matrices, and Baranyai's theorem from combinatorial mathematics. Concentration bounds for general classes of random matrix products are hard to come by in the literature, and we hope that our result will inspire further work in this direction.

Kernel analog forecasting (KAF) is a powerful methodology for data-driven, non-parametric forecasting of dynamically generated time series data. This approach has a rigorous foundation in Koopman operator theory and it produces good forecasts in practice, but it suffers from the heavy computational costs common to kernel methods. This paper proposes a streaming algorithm for KAF that only requires a single pass over the training data. This algorithm dramatically reduces the costs of training and prediction without sacrificing forecasting skill. Computational experiments demonstrate that the streaming KAF method can successfully forecast several classes of dynamical systems (periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic) in both data-scarce and data-rich regimes. The overall methodology may have wider interest as a new template for streaming kernel regression.

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